Tier
Good
Over the last 90 days, ndb1 closed 55 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +25% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, ndb1 shows a real edge over the average tracked trader, though a more moderate one and currently sits at rank #32 on Sirtio's leaderboard.
Rank
#32
Sirtio score
67.9
Avg edge (per position)
+25%
Positions (90d)
55
See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.
Raw avg return
+25%
across 55 positions
Z-score
+2.25
distance from average, adjusted for confidence
Sirtio score
67.9
The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.
The best single trade in this window was +$10,013 on "Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)" (a 152% return). The worst was a -$43,582 loss on "France vs. Spain: Team to Advance".
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
St. Louis Cardinals
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
England
Will Lucas Jumalon Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?
Yes
Will Ben Shelton Win ATP Montreal
Yes
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?
Yes
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
Spain
Will Arthur Fils Win ATP Montreal
Yes
Will North America Win the WSOP Main Event
Yes
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
No
Will Han Feng Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?
No
Will the season series between the Giants and Commanders end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
Resolved Aug 17, 2026
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-08-16?
Resolved Aug 16, 2026
Will Shaun Deeb win the 2026 WSOP Player of the Year?
Resolved Aug 16, 2026
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 National League Championship Series?
Resolved Aug 16, 2026
Will Saquon Barkley have 699.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
Resolved Aug 15, 2026
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
Resolved Aug 15, 2026
Will TCU have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Resolved Aug 13, 2026
Will Learner Tien Win ATP Montreal
Resolved Aug 12, 2026
Will Brandon Nakashima Win ATP Montreal
Resolved Aug 12, 2026
Will Rafael Jodar Win ATP Montreal
Resolved Aug 12, 2026
Will Ben Shelton Win ATP Montreal
Resolved Aug 12, 2026
Will the Packers win the season series against the Lions during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
Resolved Aug 12, 2026
Will the Cowboys win the season series against the Commanders during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
Resolved Aug 12, 2026
Will Arthur Fils Win ATP Montreal
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Will Jakub Mensik Win ATP Montreal
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
KBO: LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions
Resolved Aug 10, 2026
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?
Resolved Aug 10, 2026
Will the season series between the Cardinals and 49ers end in a tie during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
Resolved Aug 9, 2026
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?
Resolved Aug 9, 2026
Will William Foxen win the 2026 WSOP Player of the Year?
Resolved Aug 7, 2026
Will the Bills win the season series against the Dolphins during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
Resolved Aug 7, 2026
Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2026 AFC West?
Resolved Aug 6, 2026
Will Europe Win the WSOP Main Event
Resolved Aug 6, 2026
Will Lucas Jumalon Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?
Resolved Aug 6, 2026
Will the Baltimore Ravens make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
Resolved Aug 6, 2026
Will North America Win the WSOP Main Event
Resolved Aug 6, 2026
Will Taylor Fritz Win ATP Montreal
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Will Rami Hammoud Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?
Resolved Aug 4, 2026
Will Han Feng Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?
Resolved Aug 4, 2026
Will Green Bay Packers win the 2026 NFC North?
Resolved Aug 3, 2026
Will Detroit Lions win the 2026 NFC North?
Resolved Aug 3, 2026
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series?
Resolved Aug 3, 2026
Will Vegas Golden Knights be the 2027 NHL Western Conference Champion?
Resolved Aug 2, 2026
Burgos CF vs. Athletic Bilbao: O/U 0.5
Resolved Aug 1, 2026
Will Rico Hoey finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Rocket Classic?
Resolved Jul 31, 2026
Will Jacob Misiorowski strike out the most batters during the 2026 MLB regular season?
Resolved Jul 28, 2026
Will the New York Knicks be the 2027 NBA Eastern Conference Champion?
Resolved Jul 24, 2026
Will Josh Allen win the 2026 NFL MVP?
Resolved Jul 24, 2026
Will Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most rushing touchdowns?
Resolved Jul 23, 2026
Will Los Angeles Chargers win the 2026 AFC West?
Resolved Jul 22, 2026
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Resolved Jul 20, 2026
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Resolved Jul 19, 2026
Will Jason Koon cash in the WSOP 2026 Main Event?
Resolved Jul 18, 2026
Will the third-place match be FRA vs ENG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Resolved Jul 15, 2026
Spread: England (-1.5)
Resolved Jul 15, 2026
Will the third-place match be FRA vs ARG at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Resolved Jul 14, 2026
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
Resolved Jul 14, 2026
Will De'Von Achane win the 2026 NFL MVP?
Resolved Jul 13, 2026
Will Myles Garrett win the 2026 NFL MVP?
Resolved Jul 12, 2026
Will Justin Jefferson win the 2026 NFL MVP?
Resolved Jul 12, 2026
Norway vs. England: Team to Advance
Resolved Jul 11, 2026