Over the last 30 days, ndb1 closed 115 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +3% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, ndb1 performs about in line with the average tracked trader and currently sits at rank #233 on Sirtio's leaderboard.
Rank
#233
Sirtio score
55.7
Avg edge (per position)
+3%
Positions (30d)
115
Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 115 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 58% of ndb1's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.
See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.
Raw avg return
+3%
across 115 positions
Z-score
+0.78
distance from average, adjusted for confidence
Sirtio score
55.7
The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.
The best single trade in this window was +$119,284 on "Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?" (a 7% return). The worst was a -$51,644 loss on "Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)". That single trade alone accounts for more than half of this trader's total realized gains in the window, worth keeping in mind when weighing consistency.
This trader isn't in Sirtio's top 100 by score and has no followers, so we've paused fetching new position data for them -- the numbers above reflect their last tracked activity, not necessarily their current trading. Follow this trader (see the button near their name above) to resume tracking their live positions.