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VPenguin

View on Polymarket

Tier

Great

Over the last 90 days, VPenguin closed 72 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +84% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, VPenguin has consistently outperformed the average tracked trader and currently sits at rank #52 on Sirtio's leaderboard.

Rank

#52

Sirtio score

75.0

Avg edge (per position)

+84%

Positions (90d)

72

Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 72 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 91% of VPenguin's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.

Sirtio Score Breakdown

See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.

Raw avg return

+84%

across 72 positions

→Shrunk toward the pool average, weighted by sample size

Z-score

+6.84

distance from average, adjusted for confidence

→Converted to a 0-100 scale

Sirtio score

75.0

The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.

The best single trade in this window was +$93,827 on "Canada vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5" (a 427% return). The worst was a -$594 loss on "Dota 2: 1win vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner".

Top 5 Wins (Last 90 Days)

Canada vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5

Over

+$93,827427%

Spread: Argentina (-1.5)

Cabo Verde

+$57,715212%

LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Bilibili Gaming

+$45,32282%

LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group

Nongshim Red Force

+$35,98398%

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs 1win - Game 2 Winner

Team Liquid

+$22,454122%

Top 5 Losses (Last 90 Days)

Dota 2: 1win vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner

1win

-$594-10%

Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals

Yes

-$500-100%

UFC Fight Night: Hailey Cowan vs. Nina Miloševic (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)

Hailey Cowan

-$447-17%

Spread: England (-2.5)

England

-$200-100%

LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Leviatan Esports

-$88-100%

All Positions (Since Tracked Sep 1, 2026)

US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen

Resolved Sep 8, 2026SoldAlex Michelsen39c entry
+$5227%

US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Learner Tien

Resolved Sep 8, 2026SoldKaren Khachanov51c entry
+$5,49090%

US Open WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Linda Noskova

Resolved Sep 6, 2026SoldLinda Noskova65c entry
+$81754%

Manacor: Inaki Montes vs Felix Balshaw

Resolved Sep 6, 2026SoldFelix Balshaw55c entry
+$3,97081%

US Open ATP: Michael Zheng vs Arthur Gea

Resolved Sep 6, 2026SoldArthur Gea56c entry
+$5,82577%

US Open ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Flavio Cobolli

Resolved Sep 5, 2026SoldAlexander Blockx47c entry
+$4,132113%

US Open WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Amanda Anisimova

Resolved Sep 5, 2026SoldAnastasia Potapova53c entry
+$3,22290%

LoL: Leviatan Esports vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Sep 5, 2026Force-closedLeviatan Esports18c entry
-$88-100%

Manacor: Mark Lajal vs Felix Balshaw

Resolved Sep 5, 2026SoldFelix Balshaw40c entry
+$3,603150%

Jude Bellingham: 2+ goals

Resolved Sep 5, 2026Force-closedYes4c entry
-$500-100%

US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Resolved Sep 4, 2026SoldStefanos Tsitsipas46c entry
+$8,476116%

Spread: England (-2.5)

Resolved Sep 4, 2026Force-closedEngland3c entry
-$200-100%

US Open WTA: Emma Navarro vs Karolina Muchova

Resolved Sep 4, 2026SoldEmma Navarro47c entry
+$4,708113%

Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals

Resolved Sep 4, 2026Force-closedYes25c entry
+$1,720300%

US Open ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul

Resolved Sep 4, 2026SoldAlexander Bublik49c entry
+$38%

Manacor: Edas Butvilas vs Luca Potenza

Resolved Sep 4, 2026SoldLuca Potenza39c entry
+$2,584158%

US Open WTA: Maya Joint vs Liudmila Samsonova

Resolved Sep 1, 2026SoldMaya Joint47c entry
+$854113%

US Open WTA: Ann Li vs Antonia Ruzic

Resolved Aug 31, 2026SoldAntonia Ruzic34c entry
+$721%

Cincinnati Open: Madison Keys vs Xiyu Wang

Resolved Aug 20, 2026SoldMadison Keys64c entry
+$1,14949%

Cancun: Otto Virtanen vs Moez Echargui

Resolved Aug 19, 2026SoldMoez Echargui57c entry
+$43076%

Cincinnati Open: Alexander Zverev vs Tommy Paul

Resolved Aug 19, 2026SoldTommy Paul35c entry
+$3,399185%

Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Francesco Maestrelli vs Yunchaokete Bu

Resolved Aug 12, 2026SoldYunchaokete Bu48c entry
+$426108%

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Aug 5, 2026SoldTeam Liquid35c entry
+$363%

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Aug 5, 2026SoldTeam Liquid31c entry
+$13,458188%

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs 1win - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Aug 5, 2026SoldTeam Liquid42c entry
+$22,454122%

LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group

Resolved Aug 5, 2026SoldGen.G47c entry
+$20,885113%

Dota 2: 1win vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Aug 5, 2026Sold1win39c entry
-$594-10%

LoL: GIANTX vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

Resolved Aug 1, 2026SoldSK Gaming40c entry
+$12150%

LoL: GIANTX vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Aug 1, 2026SoldGIANTX56c entry
+$83511%

LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs FURIA Esports - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Aug 1, 2026SoldFURIA Esports48c entry
-$8-3%

LoL: GIANTX vs SK Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Aug 1, 2026SoldSK Gaming38c entry
+$12,317163%

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner

Resolved Aug 1, 2026SoldAstralis39c entry
+$3,474156%

UFC Fight Night: Hailey Cowan vs. Nina Miloševic (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)

Resolved Aug 1, 2026SoldHailey Cowan18c entry
-$447-17%

LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Aug 1, 2026SoldBilibili Gaming63c entry
+$1,37139%

Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner

Resolved Aug 1, 2026SoldFaZe32c entry
+$1,142212%

LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Aug 1, 2026SoldDplus KIA39c entry
+$1,973156%

LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Aug 1, 2026SoldGen.G50c entry
+$2521%

LoL: LGD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Resolved Aug 1, 2026SoldLGD Gaming31c entry
+$5516%

LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group

Resolved Aug 1, 2026SoldNongshim Red Force50c entry
+$35,98398%

LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Aug 1, 2026SoldNongshim Red Force46c entry
+$1,06262%

Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)

Resolved Aug 1, 2026SoldTop Esports47c entry
-$2-1%

LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Aug 1, 2026SoldNongshim Red Force47c entry
+$210%

LoL: Anyone's Legend vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Aug 1, 2026SoldAnyones Legend75c entry
+$5,22933%

Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)

Resolved Aug 1, 2026SoldThunderTalk Gaming40c entry
+$193%

LoL: Movistar KOI vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Jul 31, 2026SoldMovistar KOI63c entry
-$40-2%

LoL: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Jul 31, 2026SoldTeam Vitality64c entry
+$864%

England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance

Resolved Jul 15, 2026SoldArgentina24c entry
+$2,007311%

Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?

Resolved Jul 14, 2026SoldYes30c entry
+$1,415189%

Norway to score first vs. England?

Resolved Jul 11, 2026SoldYes38c entry
+$958163%

United States vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 1.5

Resolved Jul 7, 2026SoldOver43c entry
+$1,447132%

Spread: Belgium (-1.5)

Resolved Jul 7, 2026SoldBelgium17c entry
+$4,864372%

Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?

Resolved Jul 7, 2026SoldYes35c entry
+$6,253175%

France to score first vs. Paraguay?

Resolved Jul 4, 2026SoldNo18c entry
+$38747%

Canada vs. Morocco: Canada O/U 0.5

Resolved Jul 4, 2026SoldUnder44c entry
+$114127%

Canada vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5

Resolved Jul 4, 2026SoldOver19c entry
+$93,827427%

Counter-Strike: Alliance vs 9z (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage

Resolved Jul 4, 2026SoldAlliance46c entry
+$963%

LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Resolved Jul 4, 2026SoldBilibili Gaming55c entry
+$45,32282%

LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 4 Winner

Resolved Jul 4, 2026SoldT153c entry
+$20,20989%

Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5

Resolved Jul 4, 2026SoldOver77c entry
+$6330%

Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Argentina O/U 2.5

Resolved Jul 4, 2026SoldUnder47c entry
+$4,817113%

Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Argentina O/U 1.5

Resolved Jul 4, 2026SoldUnder22c entry
+$13,049354%

Spread: Argentina (-1.5)

Resolved Jul 4, 2026SoldCabo Verde32c entry
+$57,715212%

Australia vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score

Resolved Jul 3, 2026SoldYes55c entry
+$45282%

Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?

Resolved Jul 3, 2026SoldYes27c entry
+$1,125163%

Spain vs. Austria: Team to Advance

Resolved Jul 2, 2026SoldAustria16c entry
+$53%

Spain vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score

Resolved Jul 2, 2026SoldNo54c entry
+$10%

Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage

Resolved Jul 2, 2026SoldEYEBALLERS39c entry
+$56%