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0xfbd8c9...684027

View on Polymarket

Leaderboard rank

#56

Over the last 90 days, 0xfbd8c9...684027 closed 43 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +2% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, 0xfbd8c9...684027 performs about in line with the average tracked trader and currently sits at rank #56 on Sirtio's leaderboard.

Avg edge (per position)

+2%

Positions (90d)

43

Sirtio Score Breakdown

56.0

See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.

This trader's average return across 43 resolved positions was +2%. Sirtio Score doesn't use that raw number directly. It's first blended toward the average trader's return, in proportion to how much track record exists for this wallet, then measured against how uncertain that blended estimate still is. A thin sample or an inconsistent track record both widen that uncertainty and pull the score toward 50 (breakeven). A large, consistent sample lets the score move further from 50 in either direction.

Z-score+0.68

Top 5 Wins (Last 90 Days)

Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?

No

+$209%

Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?

No

+$115%

Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?

No

+$104%

Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?

No

+$94%

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 14?

No

+$7122%

Top 5 Losses (Last 90 Days)

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 66m and 68m?

Yes

-$3-15%

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 16?

Yes

-$3-16%

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 15?

Yes

-$2-22%

Will Su Ching-chuan win the next Pingtung County Magistrate election?

Yes

-$2-9%

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 15?

Yes

-$2-17%

All Positions (Last 90 Days)

MarketPnLReturn

Will the White River at Indianapolis peak over 20 ft during the August 2026 floods?

Resolved Aug 16, 2026

+$16%

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 16?

Resolved Aug 16, 2026

-$3-16%

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 100-101°F on August 17?

Resolved Aug 16, 2026

+$01%

Will Daniel Carrillo Martínez win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election?

Resolved Aug 16, 2026

+$00%

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on August 16?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

+$00%

Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

+$115%

Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

+$21%

Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

+$31%

Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

+$104%

Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

+$94%

Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

+$31%

Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

+$21%

Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

+$21%

Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

+$31%

Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

+$209%

Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

+$42%

Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

+$21%

Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from August 18 to August 25, 2026?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

+$01%

Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get less than 6 million views on day 1?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

-$0-2%

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on August 15?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

+$00%

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on August 15?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

+$00%

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial election by 25%-30%?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

-$0-1%

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 15?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

-$2-17%

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 15?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

+$06%

Will DeepSeek be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

+$14%

Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

-$0-2%

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 15?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

+$00%

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 15?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

-$0-2%

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 15?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

-$0-1%

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 66m and 68m?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

-$3-15%

Will Microsoft be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

+$01%

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 15?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

-$2-22%

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 15?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

-$0-1%

Will Meta have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

-$0-0%

Will Democrats win the Ohio Governor election and Republicans win the Ohio Senate election?

Resolved Aug 15, 2026

-$0-1%

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 14?

Resolved Aug 14, 2026

+$00%

Will Perng Shaw-jiin win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?

Resolved Aug 14, 2026

+$21%

Will Su Ching-chuan win the next Pingtung County Magistrate election?

Resolved Aug 14, 2026

-$2-9%

Will Microsoft be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?

Resolved Aug 14, 2026

+$01%

Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $600B and $700B on August 31?

Resolved Aug 14, 2026

-$0-2%

Will Microsoft be the #2 AI lab at the end of October 2026?

Resolved Aug 14, 2026

+$01%

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 14?

Resolved Aug 14, 2026

+$7122%