Tier
Good
Over the last 90 days, VigorishVault closed 8 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +112% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, VigorishVault shows a real edge over the average tracked trader, though a more moderate one and currently sits at rank #89 on Sirtio's leaderboard.
Rank
#89
Sirtio score
65.8
Avg edge (per position)
+112%
Positions (90d)
8
Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 8 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 75% of VigorishVault's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.
See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.
Raw avg return
+112%
across 8 positions
Z-score
+4.08
distance from average, adjusted for confidence
Sirtio score
65.8
The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.
The best single trade in this window was +$5,799 on "Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5" (a 92% return). Every resolved position in this window closed in the green -- no losses to report.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
Over
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
Over
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
Over
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
Over
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5
Over
Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5
Over
No losing positions in this window.
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies
Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies
Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5
Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians
New York Mets vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
New York Mets vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5