Tier
Good
Over the last 90 days, nigiri99 closed 144 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +30% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, nigiri99 shows a real edge over the average tracked trader, though a more moderate one and currently sits at rank #84 on Sirtio's leaderboard.
Rank
#84
Sirtio score
72.4
Avg edge (per position)
+30%
Positions (90d)
144
Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 144 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 89% of nigiri99's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.
See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.
Raw avg return
+30%
across 144 positions
Z-score
+4.47
distance from average, adjusted for confidence
Sirtio score
72.4
The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.
The best single trade in this window was +$7,496 on "Panthers vs. Falcons" (a 115% return). The worst was a -$1,425 loss on "Browns vs. Buccaneers".
Panthers vs. Falcons
Panthers
Panthers vs. Falcons
Panthers
Eagles vs. Titans
Eagles
Eagles vs. Titans
Eagles
Gardner-Webb vs. Marshall
Gardner-Webb
Gardner-Webb vs. Marshall
Gardner-Webb
Spread: Patriots (-5.5)
Patriots
Spread: Patriots (-5.5)
Patriots
New Hampshire vs. Sacred Heart
Sacred Heart
New Hampshire vs. Sacred Heart
Sacred Heart
Browns vs. Buccaneers
Buccaneers
Browns vs. Buccaneers
Buccaneers
Packers vs. Jets
Packers
Packers vs. Jets
Packers
Minnesota Twins vs. San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
Minnesota Twins vs. San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
Inter Miami CF vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5
Under
Inter Miami CF vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5
Under
UConn vs. Miami (OH)
UConn
UConn vs. Miami (OH)
UConn
Albania vs. Belarus: O/U 2.5
Albania vs. Belarus: O/U 2.5
Ducks vs. Kings
Ducks vs. Kings
Texas Southern vs. Alcorn State
Texas Southern vs. Alcorn State
Eagles vs. Bears
Eagles vs. Bears
UConn vs. Miami (OH)
UConn vs. Miami (OH)
Lightning vs. Panthers
Lightning vs. Panthers
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5
1H Spread: Florida (-3.5)
1H Spread: Florida (-3.5)
Boise State vs. Western Michigan
Boise State vs. Western Michigan
England vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
England vs. Spain: O/U 2.5
Gardner-Webb vs. Marshall
Gardner-Webb vs. Marshall
Devils vs. Islanders
Devils vs. Islanders
Texas vs. Tennessee
Texas vs. Tennessee
UCLA vs. Maryland
UCLA vs. Maryland
Nashville SC vs. Toronto FC: Both Teams to Score
Nashville SC vs. Toronto FC: Both Teams to Score
Georgia Tech vs. Stanford
Georgia Tech vs. Stanford
Alabama A&M vs. Florida A&M
Alabama A&M vs. Florida A&M
Tulsa vs. Arkansas
Tulsa vs. Arkansas
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)
Oklahoma vs. Georgia
Oklahoma vs. Georgia
TCU vs. UCF
TCU vs. UCF
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5
Penguins vs. Sabres
Penguins vs. Sabres
Hurricanes vs. Predators
Hurricanes vs. Predators
Iowa Team Total: O/U 16.5
Iowa Team Total: O/U 16.5
Yale vs. Cornell
Yale vs. Cornell
Vanderbilt vs. Auburn
Vanderbilt vs. Auburn
Colorado vs. Baylor
Colorado vs. Baylor
Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
Cincinnati Reds vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
New Hampshire vs. Sacred Heart
New Hampshire vs. Sacred Heart
Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech: O/U 56.5
Sam Houston vs. Texas Tech: O/U 56.5
Ball State vs. Kent State
Ball State vs. Kent State
1H Spread: Texas (-3.5)
1H Spread: Texas (-3.5)
1H Spread: Baylor (-5.5)
1H Spread: Baylor (-5.5)
Texas A&M vs. LSU
Texas A&M vs. LSU
Butler vs. Valparaiso
Butler vs. Valparaiso
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers
South Florida vs. Bowling Green
South Florida vs. Bowling Green
Troy vs. Utah State
Troy vs. Utah State
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NIP (BO3) - 1win Private Club #1 Playoffs
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NIP (BO3) - 1win Private Club #1 Playoffs
Virginia Tech vs. Boston College
Virginia Tech vs. Boston College
UNLV vs. Akron
UNLV vs. Akron
Texas Team Total: O/U 30.5
Texas Team Total: O/U 30.5
Games Total: O/U 2.5
Games Total: O/U 2.5
Wake Forest vs. Louisville
Wake Forest vs. Louisville
Maine vs. Elon
Maine vs. Elon
Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner
Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5
Toronto Tempo vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 178.5
Toronto Tempo vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 178.5
Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs. Hanshin Tigers
Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs. Hanshin Tigers
Chiefs vs. Dolphins
Chiefs vs. Dolphins
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
Hiroshima Carp vs. Yomiuri Giants
Hiroshima Carp vs. Yomiuri Giants
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Falcons vs. Packers
Falcons vs. Packers
Minnesota Twins vs. San Francisco Giants
Minnesota Twins vs. San Francisco Giants
Dallas Wings vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5
Dallas Wings vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5
Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty: O/U 177.5
Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty: O/U 177.5
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty
Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty
Minnesota Twins vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5
Minnesota Twins vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5
Wild vs. Blackhawks
Wild vs. Blackhawks
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-1.5)
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-1.5)
Dota 2: Pibbles Corp vs Hokori - Game 1 Winner
Dota 2: Pibbles Corp vs Hokori - Game 1 Winner
Sabres vs. Penguins
Sabres vs. Penguins
Seahawks vs. Commanders
Seahawks vs. Commanders
Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles vs. Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks
Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles vs. Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-16.5)
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-16.5)
Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)
Spread: Chiefs (-6.5)
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 176.5
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 176.5
Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 45.5
Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 45.5
Ravens vs. Cowboys
Ravens vs. Cowboys
Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 44.5
Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 44.5
Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)
Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Santos Laguna: Both Teams to Score
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Santos Laguna: Both Teams to Score
Colts vs. Chiefs: 1H Moneyline
Colts vs. Chiefs: 1H Moneyline
Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 46.5
Colts vs. Chiefs: O/U 46.5
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Orioles: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5
Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)
Spread: Chiefs (-4.5)
Inter Miami CF vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5
Inter Miami CF vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5
Portland Fire vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5
Portland Fire vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5
Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)
Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)
Raiders vs. Chargers
Raiders vs. Chargers
Portland Fire vs. Los Angeles Sparks
Portland Fire vs. Los Angeles Sparks
Dolphins vs. 49ers
Dolphins vs. 49ers
Browns vs. Buccaneers
Browns vs. Buccaneers
Jaguars vs. Broncos
Jaguars vs. Broncos
Jaguars vs. Broncos: O/U 45.5
Jaguars vs. Broncos: O/U 45.5
Cowboys Team Total: O/U 27.5
Cowboys Team Total: O/U 27.5
Spread: 49ers (-13.5)
Spread: 49ers (-13.5)
Spread: Seahawks (-9.5)
Spread: Seahawks (-9.5)
Spread: 49ers (-9.5)
Spread: 49ers (-9.5)
Spread: Broncos (-3.5)
Spread: Broncos (-3.5)
Commanders vs. Cowboys: O/U 50.5
Commanders vs. Cowboys: O/U 50.5
New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Jaguars vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 22.5
Jaguars vs. Broncos: 1H O/U 22.5
Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)
Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)
Panthers vs. Falcons
Panthers vs. Falcons
Packers vs. Jets
Packers vs. Jets
Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 177.5
Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 177.5
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5)
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5)
Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever
Washington Mystics vs. Indiana Fever
Raiders vs. Chargers: O/U 44.5
Raiders vs. Chargers: O/U 44.5
Eagles vs. Titans
Eagles vs. Titans
1H Spread: Buccaneers (-6.5)
1H Spread: Buccaneers (-6.5)
Spread: Patriots (-4.5)
Spread: Patriots (-4.5)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
1H Spread: Patriots (-3.5)
1H Spread: Patriots (-3.5)
Steelers vs. Patriots: O/U 40.5
Steelers vs. Patriots: O/U 40.5
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)
Spread: Ravens (-3.5)
Spread: Ravens (-3.5)
1H Spread: Ravens (-6.5)
1H Spread: Ravens (-6.5)
Steelers vs. Patriots
Steelers vs. Patriots
Vikings vs. Bears: O/U 42.5
Vikings vs. Bears: O/U 42.5
RC Deportivo A Coruña vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5
RC Deportivo A Coruña vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5
Spread: Eagles (-8.5)
Spread: Eagles (-8.5)
Vikings vs. Bears: O/U 47.5
Vikings vs. Bears: O/U 47.5
Packers vs. Jets: 1H Moneyline
Packers vs. Jets: 1H Moneyline
Spread: Panthers (-6.5)
Spread: Panthers (-6.5)
Spread: Buccaneers (-20.5)
Spread: Buccaneers (-20.5)
Spread: 49ers (-17.5)
Spread: 49ers (-17.5)
Steelers vs. Patriots: O/U 41.5
Steelers vs. Patriots: O/U 41.5
Vikings vs. Bears: O/U 33.5
Vikings vs. Bears: O/U 33.5
NO vs. BAL: O/U 46.5
NO vs. BAL: O/U 46.5
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
RC Deportivo A Coruña vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5
RC Deportivo A Coruña vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5
Spread: Patriots (-6.5)
Spread: Patriots (-6.5)
Spread: Eagles (-7.5)
Spread: Eagles (-7.5)
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-09-20?
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-09-20?
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-09-20?
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-09-20?
MIN vs. CHI: O/U 46.5
MIN vs. CHI: O/U 46.5
Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)
Spread: Cowboys (-2.5)
Spread: Patriots (-5.5)
Spread: Patriots (-5.5)
Spread: Vikings (-3.5)
Spread: Vikings (-3.5)
Saints vs. Ravens: O/U 45.5
Saints vs. Ravens: O/U 45.5
Vikings vs. Bears: O/U 36.5
Vikings vs. Bears: O/U 36.5
1H Spread: Bears (-3.5)
1H Spread: Bears (-3.5)
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5)
Spread: Packers (-2.5)
Spread: Packers (-2.5)
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)
Fulham FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5
Fulham FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5
Seattle Mariners vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5
Seattle Mariners vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5
Spread: Ravens (-6.5)
Spread: Ravens (-6.5)
Vikings vs. Bears
Vikings vs. Bears
Bears Team Total: O/U 27.5
Bears Team Total: O/U 27.5
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
1H Spread: Ravens (-4.5)
1H Spread: Ravens (-4.5)
Dolphins vs. 49ers: O/U 55.5
Dolphins vs. 49ers: O/U 55.5
Raiders vs. Chargers: O/U 62.5
Raiders vs. Chargers: O/U 62.5
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5)
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5)
Jaguars vs. Broncos: O/U 58.5
Jaguars vs. Broncos: O/U 58.5
Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
Spread: Ravens (-7.5)
Spread: Ravens (-7.5)
Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Kansas City Royals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
1H Spread: Texans (-1.5)
1H Spread: Texans (-1.5)
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5
1H Spread: 49ers (-7.5)
1H Spread: 49ers (-7.5)
Jaguars Team Total: O/U 20.5
Jaguars Team Total: O/U 20.5
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5)
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5)
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-15.5)
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-15.5)
Packers vs. Jets: O/U 42.5
Packers vs. Jets: O/U 42.5
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)
Spread: BAL (-8.5)
Spread: BAL (-8.5)
Eagles vs. Titans: O/U 38.5
Eagles vs. Titans: O/U 38.5
Eagles vs. Titans: O/U 34.5
Eagles vs. Titans: O/U 34.5
Spread: Packers (-6.5)
Spread: Packers (-6.5)
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5)
Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5)
1H Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)
1H Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)
AJ Auxerre vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 3.5
AJ Auxerre vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 3.5
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
Colts vs. Chiefs
Colts vs. Chiefs
Packers vs. Jets: O/U 44.5
Packers vs. Jets: O/U 44.5
Fulham FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score
Fulham FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster Academy vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group B
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster Academy vs Bilibili Gaming Junior (BO1) - World Star Challengers Invitational Group B
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces
AFC Bournemouth vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score
AFC Bournemouth vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score