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honey-spot

View on Polymarket

Tier

Good

Over the last 90 days, honey-spot closed 35 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +15% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, honey-spot shows a real edge over the average tracked trader, though a more moderate one and currently sits at rank #60 on Sirtio's leaderboard.

Rank

#60

Sirtio score

72.5

Avg edge (per position)

+15%

Positions (90d)

35

Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 35 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 96% of honey-spot's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.

Sirtio Score Breakdown

See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.

Raw avg return

+15%

across 35 positions

→Shrunk toward the pool average, weighted by sample size

Z-score

+6.01

distance from average, adjusted for confidence

→Converted to a 0-100 scale

Sirtio score

72.5

The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.

The best single trade in this window was +$664 on "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET" (a 63% return). The worst was a -$90 loss on "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET".

Top 5 Wins (Last 90 Days)

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET

Up

+$66463%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET

Up

+$52820%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET

Up

+$41933%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET

Up

+$33114%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET

Down

+$32051%

Top 5 Losses (Last 90 Days)

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

Up

-$90-1%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET

Down

-$10-12%

All Positions (Since Tracked Sep 1, 2026)

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET

Resolved Sep 18, 2026Force-closedUp81c entry
+$52820%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

Resolved Sep 12, 2026Force-closedUp52c entry
-$90-1%

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET

Resolved Sep 7, 2026SoldDown95c entry
+$02%

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET

Resolved Sep 7, 2026SoldUp81c entry
+$115%

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET

Resolved Sep 4, 2026SoldDown85c entry
+$635%

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET

Resolved Sep 4, 2026SoldUp75c entry
+$1316%

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET

Resolved Sep 4, 2026SoldUp89c entry
+$94%

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET

Resolved Sep 4, 2026SoldUp45c entry
+$01%

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET

Resolved Sep 4, 2026SoldUp70c entry
+$35%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET

Resolved Aug 30, 2026SoldDown41c entry
+$612%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET

Resolved Aug 30, 2026SoldDown80c entry
+$1513%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 27, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET

Resolved Aug 27, 2026SoldUp77c entry
+$3411%

Ethereum Up or Down - August 26, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET

Resolved Aug 26, 2026SoldUp41c entry
+$12230%

Ethereum Up or Down - August 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET

Resolved Aug 26, 2026SoldUp85c entry
+$10711%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

Resolved Aug 26, 2026SoldDown45c entry
+$01%

Ethereum Up or Down - August 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldUp69c entry
+$77%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldUp32c entry
+$35%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldUp80c entry
+$33%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldDown56c entry
+$47%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldUp65c entry
+$6141%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldUp54c entry
+$66463%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldUp45c entry
+$16820%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldUp44c entry
+$9516%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldDown71c entry
+$287%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldUp52c entry
+$23617%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldUp64c entry
+$41933%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldUp60c entry
+$1359%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldDown64c entry
+$3219%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldUp44c entry
+$4837%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldDown38c entry
+$32051%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldUp54c entry
+$128%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldUp35c entry
+$1211%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldUp58c entry
+$22019%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldUp71c entry
+$33114%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldUp69c entry
+$5728%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldUp75c entry
+$177%

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldDown59c entry
-$10-12%