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InterestingUser

View on Polymarket

Tier

Great

Over the last 30 days, InterestingUser closed 129 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +51% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, InterestingUser has consistently outperformed the average tracked trader and currently sits at rank #37 on Sirtio's leaderboard.

Rank

#37

Sirtio score

88.2

Avg edge (per position)

+51%

Positions (30d)

129

Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 129 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 96% of InterestingUser's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.

Sirtio Score Breakdown

See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.

Raw avg return

+51%

across 129 positions

→Shrunk toward the pool average, weighted by sample size

Z-score

+6.28

distance from average, adjusted for confidence

→Converted to a 0-100 scale

Sirtio score

88.2

The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.

The best single trade in this window was +$6,646 on "Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?" (a 660% return). The worst was a -$1,639 loss on "Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?".

Top 5 Wins (Last 30 Days)

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?

No

+$6,646660%

Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?

No

+$2,6461103%

KOSPI all-time high before 2028?

No

+$1,889107%

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Yes

+$43127%

Will Raquel Carter win the 2026 Lexington mayoral election?

Yes

+$352384%

Top 5 Losses (Last 30 Days)

Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

Yes

-$1,639-99%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes

-$1,624-11%

Will Emerson Nolasco Delgado win the next Huancayo mayoral elections?

No

-$559-98%

Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?

No

-$129-7%

Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?

Yes

-$79-93%

All Positions (Since Tracked Oct 12, 2026)

Will Republicans win Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Maine?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$10100%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Maine?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$1876%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Maine?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$6935%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$6351%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$4749%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$2622%

Will Republicans win Iowa and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$6030%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Kansas, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$39154%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Maine, and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$1644%

Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$8100%

Will Republicans win Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$43100%

Will Republicans win Michigan and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$4396%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$6250%

Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$2756%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$2854%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$3647%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine and Michigan?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$3651%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Michigan?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$2642%

Will Republicans win Maine and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$1041%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$9100%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Maine, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$10100%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$7100%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$8273%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Kansas, Michigan, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$760%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Maine, Michigan, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$2749%

Will Emerson Nolasco Delgado win the next Huancayo mayoral elections?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldNo57c entry
-$559-98%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Michigan, and lose Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$1153%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$2142%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$1379%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Michigan?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$1850%

Will Republicans win Maine and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$5165%

Will Republicans win Iowa and Maine, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$24479%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$2559%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Michigan?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$8732%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Michigan, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$1100%

Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$750%

Will Republicans win Maine and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$3258%

Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in October?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026RedeemedYes17c entry
+$118488%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$1675%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas, Maine, and Michigan?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$319%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$1373%

Will Republicans win Alaska and Michigan, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$3107%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Kansas, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$10100%

Will Republicans win Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$2100%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$20100%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Maine, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$0100%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Iowa and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$0100%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Michigan and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$4060%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas, and lose Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$3925%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$1644%

Will Republicans win Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Michigan?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$557%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$8100%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$4392%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$373%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Ohio?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$2933%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$5167%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$76%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Iowa and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$6100%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$11100%

Will Republicans win Alaska and Maine, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$746%

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldNo73c entry
+$34822%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Maine and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$00%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, and lose Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$2786%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa and Michigan?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$4100%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$2889%

Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Iowa?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$994%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa and Kansas?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$27100%

Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Michigan?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$3092%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa and Maine?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$10100%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Maine?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$8100%

Will Republicans win Kansas and Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$1537%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$10100%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$2100%

Will Republicans win Kansas, Maine, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Michigan, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$164%

Will Republicans win Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$4100%

Will Republicans win Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, and Kansas?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$1100%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$1454%

Will Republicans win Kansas and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$5681%

Will Republicans win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$1625%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$1946%

Will Republicans win Michigan, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$2725%

Will Republicans win Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Maine?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$12100%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$8100%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$1150%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Kansas, and Maine?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$11100%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Iowa, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$0100%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Maine, and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$010%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$838%

Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldNo49c entry
+$4224%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, and Michigan, and lose Maine, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$1034%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Kansas and Texas?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$1990%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Maine?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$1931%

Will Republicans win Kansas and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$532%

Will Republicans win Ohio and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$850%

Will Republicans win Alaska and Kansas, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$4268%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Ohio and Texas?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$439%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Michigan?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$1277%

Will Republicans win Alaska and Texas, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$1250%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Maine, and Michigan?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$2100%

Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be at least $327,000 on December 31?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldNo82c entry
+$439%

Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$267%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$12100%

Will Republicans win Maine, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$20837%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Kansas, and Texas, and lose Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$1065%

Will Republicans win Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$114%

Will Republicans win Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$21115%

Will Republicans win Iowa and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$3373%

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes40c entry
+$43127%

Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes77c entry
+$923%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Maine and Texas?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$020%

Will Miranda Lambert win Female Vocalist of the Year at the 2026 CMA Awards?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldNo83c entry
+$1914%

Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of December 2026?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes58c entry
+$6923%

Will Republicans win Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Ohio?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$050%

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldNo13c entry
+$6,646660%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Kansas?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$150%

Will Republicans win Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and Texas?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$050%

Will Republicans win Alaska and Ohio, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, and Texas?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$264%

Will Republicans win Michigan and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Texas?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$050%

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes17c entry
+$0158%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, and Texas?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$1541%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Maine, Michigan, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Texas?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes0c entry
+$350%

Will Raquel Carter win the 2026 Lexington mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedYes21c entry
+$352384%

Will ISM Services PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in October?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedYes42c entry
+$2319%

Will PPI YoY be 6.8% or more in October?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedNo32c entry
+$343209%

Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldNo87c entry
-$60-14%

Yum! Brands (YUM) Q3 worldwide same-restaurant sales growth -0.5% to 0.5%?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldYes37c entry
+$1725%

Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldYes18c entry
-$15-54%

Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026RedeemedNo21c entry
+$117373%

Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026SoldNo70c entry
-$129-7%

Will three people dissent the October Fed decision?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026RedeemedNo72c entry
+$2438%

Will Morgan Wallen perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026SoldNo83c entry
+$1316%

Will Taylor Swift perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026SoldNo80c entry
+$8417%

Will PPI YoY be 6.6% in October?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedYes47c entry
+$07%

Will Matthew Garwood win the next Launceston mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedNo41c entry
+$214147%

Will Harry Styles perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026SoldNo74c entry
+$15934%

Will Miley Cyrus perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026SoldNo60c entry
+$3555%

Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 3.5%?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026SoldYes31c entry
+$97%

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026SoldYes46c entry
+$16789%

Will Dua Lipa perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026SoldNo84c entry
+$3210%

Will Post Malone perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026SoldNo78c entry
+$2918%

No one announced as next James Bond?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldYes22c entry
+$14742%

Will Carolyn Parrish win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedYes56c entry
-$36-10%

Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldYes62c entry
-$1,639-99%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldYes37c entry
-$1,624-11%

Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in November?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldYes10c entry
+$0132%

Will Aptiv (APTV) beat quarterly earnings?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldNo30c entry
+$3521%

Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldNo77c entry
+$1810%

Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldNo66c entry
+$1017%

Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.75 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldNo57c entry
+$1431%

Will Shake Shack (SHAK) beat quarterly earnings?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldNo32c entry
+$413%

Will Parveen Bola win the 2026 Vaughan mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldNo96c entry
+$24%

Will Ladislav Lörinc win the 2026 Košice mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldYes45c entry
+$195120%

Will Moog (MOG.A) beat quarterly earnings?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldNo21c entry
+$419%

Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate final round by 6%-9%?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldNo78c entry
+$414%

Will another artist be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldYes10c entry
+$48111%

Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldYes86c entry
+$8210%

Will Doug Morneau win the next Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldYes29c entry
+$1075%

Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $2.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldNo88c entry
-$12-4%

Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldYes44c entry
+$6415%

Will a hurricane make landfall in Georgia by November 30, 2026?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldNo88c entry
+$411%

Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 1.5% and 1.9%?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldNo89c entry
+$29%

Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldNo83c entry
+$5720%

US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldNo65c entry
+$7845%

Will John Kelly win the next Hobart mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldNo60c entry
+$1665%

Alibaba matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldNo93c entry
+$67%

Will SNSD win the most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldNo84c entry
+$319%

Will William Peña Farfán win the next Cusco mayoral elections?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldNo75c entry
+$2833%

Will China’s CPI increase by at least 1.3% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldNo82c entry
+$2421%

Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 8.5% to 9.5%?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026MergedYes34c entry
+$1646%

Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 6.5% to 7.5%?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026MergedNo60c entry
+$2067%

Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 76-78%?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldYes28c entry
+$1530%

Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026MergedYes35c entry
+$4441%

Will SS&C (SSNC) beat quarterly earnings?

Resolved Oct 22, 2026RedeemedNo25c entry
+$122294%

Will Gladyz Butanda Macías win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?

Resolved Oct 22, 2026SoldNo75c entry
+$325%

Will the Democrats win Broward County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldYes96c entry
+$23%

Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldYes16c entry
-$79-93%

Visa (V) Q4 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 7.5% to 8.5%?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldNo68c entry
+$5344%

Will Víctor Robert De La Cruz Rosas win the next Trujillo mayoral elections?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldNo54c entry
+$14784%

Will Igor Kršiak win the 2026 Nitra mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldNo69c entry
+$22527%

KOSPI all-time high before 2028?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldNo35c entry
+$1,889107%

Will Ford (F) beat quarterly earnings?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedYes47c entry
+$37%

Will Cboe (CBOE) beat quarterly earnings?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedYes38c entry
+$7133%

Will Meta (META) beat quarterly earnings?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedYes47c entry
+$07%

Will General Mills Q2 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%?

Resolved Oct 19, 2026SoldYes17c entry
+$1678%

Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 18, 2026SoldNo82c entry
+$711%

Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?

Resolved Oct 18, 2026SoldYes80c entry
+$206%

Will Leonard Krog win the 2026 Nanaimo mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026SoldYes76c entry
+$2317%

Will Professora Maria do Carmo win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026SoldYes12c entry
+$710%

Will Confluent (CFLT) beat quarterly earnings?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026SoldNo93c entry
+$33%

Will Rivian (RIVN) beat quarterly earnings?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026SoldNo28c entry
+$46258%

Will there be 35 to 49 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026SoldYes29c entry
+$1032%

Will PPI YoY be 6.2% in October?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026MergedNo86c entry
+$2016%

Will the Republicans win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026SoldNo46c entry
+$4513%

Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026SoldYes11c entry
+$206569%

Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026MergedYes39c entry
+$15427%

Will Ally (ALLY) beat quarterly earnings?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026MergedYes51c entry
-$5-3%

Will Roberto Cidade win the 2026 Amazonas gubernatorial election?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026SoldNo72c entry
+$18740%

Will Argentina's monthly inflation in October 2026 be between 1.9% and 2.1%?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026SoldNo49c entry
+$1619%

Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026SoldYes40c entry
+$819%

Mistral matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldNo86c entry
+$614%

Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by December 31?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldNo78c entry
+$13010%

Will Discord’s market cap be less than $5B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldNo85c entry
+$4811%

Will "Choosin Texas – Ella Langley" be the top song in the US for 2026?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldYes92c entry
+$803%

Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldNo8c entry
+$2,6461103%

Will Jack Crompton win the 2026 Whistler mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026MergedYes32c entry
+$31955%

Will Mike O'Reilly win the 2026 Kamloops mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026MergedYes42c entry
+$218%

Will Leanne Caron win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$13%

Will Cheryl Fuller win the next Central Coast mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026MergedYes37c entry
+$535%

Will no live-action Gwen Stacy actor be chosen by end of 2027?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026SoldNo54c entry
+$921%