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ImJustKen

View on Polymarket

Tier

Good

Over the last 90 days, ImJustKen closed 85 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +72% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, ImJustKen shows a real edge over the average tracked trader, though a more moderate one and currently sits at rank #91 on Sirtio's leaderboard.

Rank

#91

Sirtio score

69.8

Avg edge (per position)

+72%

Positions (90d)

85

Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 85 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 43% of ImJustKen's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.

Sirtio Score Breakdown

See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.

Raw avg return

+72%

across 85 positions

→Shrunk toward the pool average, weighted by sample size

Z-score

+3.87

distance from average, adjusted for confidence

→Converted to a 0-100 scale

Sirtio score

69.8

The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.

The best single trade in this window was +$28,344 on "Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?" (a 588% return). The worst was a -$52,224 loss on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?".

Top 5 Wins (Last 90 Days)

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes

+$28,344588%

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Yes

+$6,63810%

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Yes

+$6,441276%

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Yes

+$3,4421%

No one announced as next James Bond?

Yes

+$2,5734%

Top 5 Losses (Last 90 Days)

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Yes

-$52,224-11%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Yes

-$28,919-9%

Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by August 30?

Yes

-$218-6%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Yes

-$197-13%

Will Jamie Lee Curtis – “The Bear” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series?

Yes

-$56-53%

All Positions (Since Tracked Aug 14, 2026)

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes12c entry
+$127%

Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldYes31c entry
+$5006%

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Resolved Sep 21, 2026SoldNo94c entry
+$9242%

Will the Republicans win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 19, 2026SoldYes3c entry
+$6791808%

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?

Resolved Sep 17, 2026SoldYes28c entry
+$5339%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Resolved Sep 16, 2026SoldYes1c entry
-$197-13%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Resolved Sep 16, 2026MergedYes64c entry
-$28,919-9%

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?

Resolved Sep 16, 2026MergedYes2c entry
+$2,3724662%

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Resolved Sep 15, 2026SoldYes22c entry
+$6,63810%

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Resolved Sep 15, 2026SoldYes14c entry
+$5805%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Resolved Sep 15, 2026SoldYes73c entry
+$5735%

Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 15, 2026MergedNo89c entry
+$2712%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Resolved Sep 15, 2026MergedYes64c entry
-$52,224-11%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Resolved Sep 14, 2026MergedYes48c entry
+$5983%

Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?

Resolved Sep 14, 2026MergedYes47c entry
+$3077%

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Resolved Sep 14, 2026MergedYes14c entry
+$2,134583%

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Sep 14, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$62%

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Resolved Sep 14, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$5472%

Will Jamie Lee Curtis – “The Bear” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series?

Resolved Sep 13, 2026Force-closedYes15c entry
-$56-53%

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Resolved Sep 11, 2026MergedYes14c entry
+$28,344588%

Will Bernie Sanders be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?

Resolved Sep 11, 2026MergedYes2c entry
+$54662%

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Resolved Sep 11, 2026MergedYes62c entry
+$3,4421%

Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 11, 2026MergedNo6c entry
+$381567%

Will Andrew Scott be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Resolved Sep 10, 2026SoldYes72c entry
+$202%

Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?

Resolved Sep 9, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$102%

Will Matthew Rhys – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series?

Resolved Sep 9, 2026MergedYes41c entry
+$65042%

Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 8, 2026MergedNo7c entry
+$7911329%

Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 8, 2026MergedYes29c entry
+$656158%

Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?

Resolved Sep 8, 2026MergedYes18c entry
+$703451%

Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 8, 2026MergedYes3c entry
+$93233%

Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 8, 2026MergedYes3c entry
+$2413233%

Will The Odyssey win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards?

Resolved Sep 8, 2026MergedYes48c entry
+$204%

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?

Resolved Sep 8, 2026MergedYes48c entry
+$655%

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Resolved Sep 8, 2026MergedYes48c entry
+$7194%

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Resolved Sep 8, 2026MergedYes50c entry
+$410%

OpenAI IPO before 2027?

Resolved Sep 8, 2026MergedYes29c entry
+$1,646172%

Will Bradley Whitford – “The Diplomat” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?

Resolved Sep 3, 2026SoldYes19c entry
+$209%

Theo James announced as next James Bond?

Resolved Sep 2, 2026SoldYes79c entry
+$2165%

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Resolved Sep 1, 2026SoldYes80c entry
+$41123%

Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Resolved Aug 31, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$24129%

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Resolved Aug 31, 2026SoldYes8c entry
+$2737%

Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?

Resolved Aug 30, 2026MergedYes48c entry
+$53%

Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?

Resolved Aug 30, 2026MergedYes23c entry
+$530335%

Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?

Resolved Aug 30, 2026MergedYes46c entry
+$2288%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Resolved Aug 30, 2026MergedYes50c entry
-$3-0%

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

Resolved Aug 30, 2026MergedYes45c entry
+$1,04421%

Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Resolved Aug 30, 2026MergedNo68c entry
+$33248%

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

Resolved Aug 30, 2026MergedYes50c entry
+$2432%

Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by August 30?

Resolved Aug 30, 2026MergedYes53c entry
-$218-6%

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Resolved Aug 30, 2026SoldYes20c entry
+$35926%

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Resolved Aug 29, 2026SoldNo78c entry
+$2482%

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Resolved Aug 28, 2026SoldYes51c entry
+$2841%

US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?

Resolved Aug 27, 2026SoldYes80c entry
+$24%

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Resolved Aug 27, 2026SoldYes4c entry
+$42%

Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?

Resolved Aug 27, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$52%

Will the Republicans win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?

Resolved Aug 27, 2026MergedYes54c entry
+$415%

Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Aug 27, 2026MergedYes47c entry
+$41210%

Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Resolved Aug 27, 2026MergedYes23c entry
+$6,441276%

Will Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?

Resolved Aug 27, 2026MergedYes34c entry
+$760194%

No one announced as next James Bond?

Resolved Aug 27, 2026MergedYes48c entry
+$2,5734%

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?

Resolved Aug 26, 2026SoldYes10c entry
+$31%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?

Resolved Aug 26, 2026SoldYes83c entry
+$2,1886%

Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldYes11c entry
+$958284%

Will Betty Gilpin – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series?

Resolved Aug 25, 2026MergedYes43c entry
+$2016%

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?

Resolved Aug 25, 2026MergedYes46c entry
+$18%

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?

Resolved Aug 25, 2026MergedYes14c entry
+$425180%

Will the Republicans win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldYes72c entry
+$351%

Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?

Resolved Aug 25, 2026SoldYes45c entry
+$4995%

Will Inde Navarrette win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?

Resolved Aug 23, 2026MergedYes42c entry
+$50938%

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?

Resolved Aug 23, 2026MergedYes38c entry
+$36930%

Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?

Resolved Aug 23, 2026MergedYes9c entry
+$504995%

Tom Lee charged by December 31?

Resolved Aug 23, 2026MergedYes3c entry
+$1,0853233%

Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?

Resolved Aug 21, 2026SoldYes23c entry
+$1734%

Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

Resolved Aug 20, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$512%

Will Jeff Kober – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?

Resolved Aug 20, 2026MergedNo89c entry
+$512%

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

Resolved Aug 20, 2026MergedYes50c entry
+$501%

Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

Resolved Aug 20, 2026MergedYes16c entry
+$320528%

Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?

Resolved Aug 20, 2026MergedYes47c entry
+$777%

Will Ernest Harden Jr. – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series?

Resolved Aug 18, 2026SoldYes16c entry
+$028%

Will Kaitlin Olson – “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series?

Resolved Aug 18, 2026MergedYes36c entry
+$12838%

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Aug 17, 2026SoldNo91c entry
+$1525%

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Aug 17, 2026SoldYes7c entry
+$52914%

Will The Odyssey win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?

Resolved Aug 16, 2026MergedYes42c entry
+$5711%

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?

Resolved Aug 16, 2026MergedYes38c entry
+$17830%

Will Matt Damon win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

Resolved Aug 16, 2026MergedYes27c entry
+$446270%

Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?

Resolved Aug 16, 2026MergedYes17c entry
+$1,065488%

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 700m and 800m by August 31?

Resolved Aug 13, 2026SoldNo99c entry
+$351%

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Resolved Aug 12, 2026SoldYes10c entry
+$385%

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?

Resolved Aug 12, 2026SoldYes89c entry
+$2,5485%

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?

Resolved Aug 11, 2026SoldYes89c entry
+$4684%

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?

Resolved Aug 9, 2026SoldNo97c entry
+$1611%

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

Resolved Aug 9, 2026SoldYes90c entry
+$412%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?

Resolved Aug 8, 2026SoldYes88c entry
+$3883%

Will Max Miller drop out of the OH-07 race by August 9?

Resolved Aug 7, 2026SoldYes27c entry
+$560%

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Resolved Aug 7, 2026SoldYes8c entry
+$2225%