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0x9b129a...aec2d5

View on Polymarket

Tier

Good

Over the last 90 days, 0x9b129a...aec2d5 closed 18 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +164% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, 0x9b129a...aec2d5 shows a real edge over the average tracked trader, though a more moderate one and currently sits at rank #75 on Sirtio's leaderboard.

Rank

#75

Sirtio score

73.7

Avg edge (per position)

+164%

Positions (90d)

18

Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 18 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 96% of 0x9b129a...aec2d5's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.

Sirtio Score Breakdown

See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.

Raw avg return

+164%

across 18 positions

→Shrunk toward the pool average, weighted by sample size

Z-score

+4.76

distance from average, adjusted for confidence

→Converted to a 0-100 scale

Sirtio score

73.7

The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.

The best single trade in this window was +$391 on "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on September 23?" (a 10029% return). Every resolved position in this window closed in the green -- no losses to report.

Top 5 Wins (Last 90 Days)

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on September 23?

Yes

+$39110029%

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on September 24?

Yes

+$175472%

Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?

Yes

+$156701%

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on September 24?

Yes

+$149173%

Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?

No

+$129440%

Top 5 Losses (Last 90 Days)

No losing positions in this window.

All Positions (Since Tracked Sep 26, 2026)

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026Force-closedNo98c entry
+$02%

Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 16m?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes67c entry
+$4344%

Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes30c entry
+$156701%

Will "Primetime" be #1 Box Office this weekend?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedNo98c entry
+$22%

Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedNo97c entry
+$3230%

Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedNo98c entry
+$129440%

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on September 25?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026SoldNo72c entry
+$365%

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on September 25?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedNo31c entry
+$44509%

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on September 25?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes3c entry
+$5864467%

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on September 25?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedNo41c entry
+$541386%

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on September 25?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes85c entry
+$217%

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on September 25?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedNo92c entry
+$275%

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on September 25?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes48c entry
+$3187%

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on September 25?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedNo83c entry
+$2052%

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on September 25?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedNo98c entry
+$2068%

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on September 25?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes4c entry
+$82400%

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on September 25?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes0c entry
+$624900%

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on September 25?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedNo87c entry
+$016%

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedNo70c entry
+$58263%

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes40c entry
+$175472%

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedNo100c entry
+$98216%

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes80c entry
+$3193%

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes28c entry
+$116792%

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes56c entry
+$55251%

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes83c entry
+$2389%

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes67c entry
+$40227%

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes61c entry
+$69253%

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes48c entry
+$52217%

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes50c entry
+$39190%

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes23c entry
+$4346%

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedNo66c entry
+$251%

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedNo88c entry
+$114%

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedNo94c entry
+$55397%

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes64c entry
+$87327%

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes38c entry
+$149173%

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes51c entry
+$107234%

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes42c entry
+$37335%

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldNo75c entry
+$439%

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes59c entry
+$22192%

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedNo97c entry
+$19108%

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedNo100c entry
+$00%

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedNo100c entry
+$117531%

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedNo100c entry
+$781228%

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026MergedYes63c entry
+$419%

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on September 23?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026SoldNo84c entry
+$23122%

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on September 23?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026MergedYes51c entry
+$28197%

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on September 23?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026MergedYes30c entry
+$7239%

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on September 23?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026MergedYes5c entry
+$51880%

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on September 23?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026MergedYes54c entry
+$20128%

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on September 23?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026MergedYes54c entry
+$17120%

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on September 23?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026MergedYes63c entry
+$1096%

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on September 23?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026MergedYes62c entry
+$53654%

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on September 23?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026MergedYes33c entry
+$26263%

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on September 23?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026SoldNo75c entry
+$133%

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on September 23?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026MergedYes8c entry
+$39110029%

Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on September 23?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026SoldYes33c entry
+$81203%

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on September 24?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026MergedNo100c entry
+$64300%

Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on September 23?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026MergedNo98c entry
+$02%

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on September 23?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026SoldYes85c entry
+$48113%

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on September 23?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026MergedYes64c entry
+$1350%

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 23?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026MergedYes52c entry
+$24131%

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on September 23?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026MergedYes0c entry
+$4045751%

Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026MergedNo100c entry
+$221789%

Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on September 23?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026MergedNo66c entry
+$252%