--> Back to leaderboard

anoin123

View on Polymarket

Tier

Great

Over the last 30 days, anoin123 closed 180 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +22% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, anoin123 has consistently outperformed the average tracked trader and currently sits at rank #63 on Sirtio's leaderboard.

Rank

#63

Sirtio score

76.4

Avg edge (per position)

+22%

Positions (30d)

180

Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 180 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 72% of anoin123's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.

Sirtio Score Breakdown

See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.

Raw avg return

+22%

across 180 positions

→Shrunk toward the pool average, weighted by sample size

Z-score

+3.67

distance from average, adjusted for confidence

→Converted to a 0-100 scale

Sirtio score

76.4

The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.

The best single trade in this window was +$66,691 on "US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?" (a 72% return). The worst was a -$5,498 loss on "Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?".

Top 5 Wins (Last 30 Days)

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Yes

+$66,69172%

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?

Yes

+$25,738294%

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

Yes

+$9,36237%

Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?

Yes

+$8,15393%

Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Yes

+$8,114733%

Top 5 Losses (Last 30 Days)

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?

Yes

-$5,498-22%

Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?

Yes

-$2,307-5%

Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?

Yes

-$1,862-8%

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?

Yes

-$1,449-22%

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

Yes

-$1,352-17%

All Positions (Since Tracked Oct 13, 2026)

Will the Democratic Party win the OH-10 House seat?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026MergedYes50c entry
+$21%

Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026MergedYes51c entry
-$14-2%

Will the Democratic Party win the TX-09 House seat?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026MergedYes47c entry
+$286%

Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026MergedNo30c entry
+$490228%

Will the Republican Party win the MO-05 House seat?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026MergedNo97c entry
+$93%

Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026MergedYes48c entry
+$44%

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026MergedYes54c entry
-$185-7%

Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026MergedYes47c entry
+$2968%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026MergedYes44c entry
+$9813%

US imports Russian diesel by November 30?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$572%

Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026MergedYes52c entry
-$880-4%

Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026MergedYes54c entry
-$23-7%

Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026MergedYes42c entry
+$4220%

Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026MergedYes52c entry
-$100-5%

No one announced as next James Bond?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026MergedYes51c entry
-$205-1%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026MergedYes51c entry
-$366-3%

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026MergedYes34c entry
+$2,64947%

Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026MergedYes88c entry
+$4562%

Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026MergedYes41c entry
+$8,15393%

Will the Democratic Party win the MO-05 House seat?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026MergedNo2c entry
+$1,7454067%

Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026MergedYes97c entry
+$5132%

Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026MergedYes53c entry
-$89-5%

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026MergedYes38c entry
+$1,49732%

Will the Democratic Party win the FL-09 House seat?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026MergedYes33c entry
+$25203%

Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026MergedNo86c entry
+$56716%

Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026MergedYes53c entry
-$3-6%

Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026MergedYes10c entry
+$177900%

Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026MergedYes16c entry
+$186545%

Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026MergedYes41c entry
+$2022%

Will the Democratic Party win the OH-01 House seat?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026MergedYes96c entry
+$45%

Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$602%

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026MergedNo96c entry
+$8734%

Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$72%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026MergedYes47c entry
+$5098%

Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026MergedYes55c entry
-$505-9%

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026MergedYes85c entry
+$1,4186%

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026MergedYes45c entry
+$1,15911%

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026MergedYes93c entry
+$538%

Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026MergedYes50c entry
+$841%

Blue tsunami in 2026?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026MergedYes50c entry
+$131%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026RedeemedYes88c entry
+$1,43113%

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedYes47c entry
+$496%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedYes51c entry
-$213-2%

Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedYes50c entry
-$35-1%

Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedYes51c entry
-$15-2%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedYes50c entry
+$830%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedYes50c entry
-$15-0%

Will Democrats win white voters in the midterms?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedYes44c entry
+$6414%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedYes36c entry
+$1,18240%

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedYes45c entry
+$5,39511%

Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedYes57c entry
+$1,9347%

Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedYes39c entry
+$3,99227%

Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedYes54c entry
-$1,862-8%

Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedYes57c entry
+$706%

Will the Republican Party win the PA-07 House seat?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedNo86c entry
+$6416%

Will Jeromie Whalen be the MA-01 Democratic nominee?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026Force-closedNo92c entry
+$4799%

Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026MergedYes42c entry
+$12018%

Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$91%

Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026MergedYes96c entry
+$3114%

Will Charlie Crist win the St. Petersburg mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026MergedYes51c entry
-$8-2%

Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026MergedYes57c entry
-$244-2%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026MergedYes51c entry
-$85-2%

Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026MergedYes70c entry
+$74014%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026MergedYes36c entry
+$66,69172%

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026MergedYes77c entry
+$7065%

Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026MergedYes52c entry
-$172-4%

Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026MergedYes82c entry
+$722%

Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026MergedYes51c entry
-$1-2%

Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026MergedYes51c entry
-$99-3%

Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026MergedYes83c entry
+$74221%

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026MergedYes70c entry
-$1,352-17%

Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026RedeemedYes66c entry
+$1,62552%

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026MergedYes64c entry
-$5,498-22%

Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026MergedYes12c entry
+$8,114733%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026MergedYes43c entry
+$1,62416%

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Resolved Oct 29, 2026MergedYes50c entry
+$341%

Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedYes61c entry
-$43-17%

Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedNo26c entry
+$283285%

Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedYes27c entry
+$4,867270%

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedNo80c entry
+$3,70426%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedYes55c entry
-$708-9%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026RedeemedYes55c entry
-$399-8%

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedYes52c entry
-$131-4%

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedYes50c entry
-$31-1%

Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedYes56c entry
-$204-11%

Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedYes80c entry
+$1,33425%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedYes57c entry
+$3,47110%

Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedYes57c entry
-$815-12%

Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$3242%

Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedYes73c entry
+$5606%

France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedYes53c entry
-$660-6%

Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedYes53c entry
-$2,307-5%

Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedYes73c entry
+$4243%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026RedeemedYes85c entry
+$1,99618%

Will Mai Vang win the CA-07 House seat?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedNo61c entry
+$5464%

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedYes47c entry
+$2827%

Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$272%

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedYes46c entry
+$6,19117%

Will Doris Matsui win the CA-07 House seat?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedYes61c entry
+$3764%

Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedYes69c entry
-$52-6%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedYes45c entry
+$3,41512%

Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedYes19c entry
+$12426%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedYes54c entry
-$1,350-7%

Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedYes38c entry
+$8132%

Will Israel election happen as scheduled?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026RedeemedYes91c entry
+$4,11410%

Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedYes56c entry
-$0-10%

Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedYes62c entry
-$454-19%

Will the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$33%

Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedYes43c entry
+$16316%

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedYes41c entry
+$9,36237%

Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo81c entry
+$80423%

Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be less than 76%?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026RedeemedNo96c entry
+$1784%

Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedYes52c entry
-$196-3%

Will Connie Chan win the CA-11 House seat?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes59c entry
-$13-15%

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes64c entry
-$1,449-22%

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes46c entry
+$4039%

Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes44c entry
+$1,67413%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes50c entry
+$190%

Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes57c entry
-$24-12%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$202%

Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes44c entry
+$23614%

Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026MergedYes48c entry
+$5375%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026MergedYes55c entry
-$514-9%

Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026MergedYes69c entry
+$2762%

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026MergedYes58c entry
-$724-14%

Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026MergedYes46c entry
+$30610%

Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026MergedNo65c entry
+$2,49353%

Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026MergedYes37c entry
+$92235%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026MergedYes51c entry
+$1,54518%

Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026MergedYes46c entry
+$638%

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026MergedYes48c entry
+$1543%

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026MergedYes43c entry
+$11516%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026MergedYes54c entry
+$1,68810%

Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026MergedYes46c entry
+$1,60510%

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026MergedYes47c entry
+$8016%

Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026MergedYes91c entry
+$12710%

Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 30%?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$02%

Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026MergedYes41c entry
+$822%

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026MergedYes51c entry
-$46-3%

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Resolved Oct 23, 2026MergedYes78c entry
+$1,7387%

Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026MergedYes50c entry
-$17-0%

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026MergedYes33c entry
+$1,74950%

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026MergedYes47c entry
-$873-5%

Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 30%-40%?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026MergedYes50c entry
+$61%

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?

Resolved Oct 22, 2026MergedYes43c entry
+$1,05015%

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Resolved Oct 22, 2026MergedYes45c entry
+$3412%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldYes48c entry
+$1,59816%

Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldYes42c entry
+$6243%

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026MergedYes25c entry
+$1,457207%

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026MergedYes35c entry
+$1,22842%

No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026MergedYes50c entry
+$11%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026MergedYes44c entry
+$3,18521%

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedNo97c entry
+$2103%

Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedYes56c entry
-$288-11%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedYes48c entry
+$6724%

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedYes45c entry
+$4211%

Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedYes51c entry
-$8-2%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Resolved Oct 19, 2026MergedYes45c entry
+$75411%

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?

Resolved Oct 19, 2026SoldYes77c entry
+$55617%

Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026MergedYes45c entry
+$42511%

Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026MergedYes46c entry
+$310%

Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$591%

Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldYes34c entry
-$108-26%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026MergedYes37c entry
+$2,19834%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$2441%

Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldYes61c entry
+$6,93748%

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldNo32c entry
-$60-4%

Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026MergedNo78c entry
+$97028%

Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Minnesota in the 2026 midterm elections?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026MergedYes48c entry
+$04%

Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026MergedYes50c entry
-$32-1%

Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026MergedYes50c entry
-$18-0%

Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldNo42c entry
-$979-38%

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldYes36c entry
+$742%

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldNo43c entry
-$1,151-17%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldNo78c entry
+$1,63821%

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldNo57c entry
+$61050%

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldNo44c entry
-$958-16%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldNo60c entry
+$5,95445%

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldYes22c entry
+$25,738294%

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)

Resolved Oct 15, 2026MergedYes46c entry
+$28010%

Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026MergedYes41c entry
+$34222%

Will Marina Silva win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026Force-closedYes7c entry
-$869-100%

Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026MergedYes50c entry
+$81%

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026MergedYes45c entry
+$411%

Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026MergedYes16c entry
+$5212%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026MergedYes60c entry
+$39910%