Tier
Great
Over the last 30 days, anoin123 closed 180 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +22% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, anoin123 has consistently outperformed the average tracked trader and currently sits at rank #63 on Sirtio's leaderboard.
Rank
#63
Sirtio score
76.4
Avg edge (per position)
+22%
Positions (30d)
180
Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 180 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 72% of anoin123's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.
See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.
Raw avg return
+22%
across 180 positions
Z-score
+3.67
distance from average, adjusted for confidence
Sirtio score
76.4
The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.
The best single trade in this window was +$66,691 on "US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?" (a 72% return). The worst was a -$5,498 loss on "Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?".
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Yes
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Yes
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
Yes
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
Yes
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
Yes
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
Yes
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?
Yes
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?
Yes
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Yes
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Yes
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
Yes
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
Yes
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Yes
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Yes
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Yes
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Yes
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?
Yes
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?
Yes
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
Yes
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
Yes
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-10 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-10 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-09 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-09 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the MO-05 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the MO-05 House seat?
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
No one announced as next James Bond?
No one announced as next James Bond?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-05 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-05 House seat?
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-09 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-09 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2026?
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat?
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-01 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-01 House seat?
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026?
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the next Lima mayoral elections?
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?
Blue tsunami in 2026?
Blue tsunami in 2026?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
Will Democrats win white voters in the midterms?
Will Democrats win white voters in the midterms?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?
Will the Republican Party win the PA-07 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the PA-07 House seat?
Will Jeromie Whalen be the MA-01 Democratic nominee?
Will Jeromie Whalen be the MA-01 Democratic nominee?
Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
Will Stefan Evers be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?
Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
Will Charlie Crist win the St. Petersburg mayoral election?
Will Charlie Crist win the St. Petersburg mayoral election?
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more?
Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more?
Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat?
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?
Will Mai Vang win the CA-07 House seat?
Will Mai Vang win the CA-07 House seat?
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Will Doris Matsui win the CA-07 House seat?
Will Doris Matsui win the CA-07 House seat?
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-22 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat?
Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?
Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat?
Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be less than 76%?
Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be less than 76%?
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?
Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?
Will Connie Chan win the CA-11 House seat?
Will Connie Chan win the CA-11 House seat?
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?
Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?
Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 30%?
Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 30%?
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pará?
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 30%-40%?
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 30%-40%?
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026?
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Minnesota in the 2026 midterm elections?
Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Minnesota in the 2026 midterm elections?
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?
Will Marina Silva win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?
Will Marina Silva win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?
Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections?
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
Will Sven Schulze be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?