Leaderboard rank
#58
Over the last 90 days, RenanPresidente. closed 76 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of -10% per position. Based on Sirtio's Bayesian-shrunk skill model, RenanPresidente. has underperformed the average tracked trader over this window and currently ranks #58 on Sirtio's leaderboard.
Avg edge (per position)
-10%
Positions (90d)
76
30.1
See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.
This trader's average return across 76 resolved positions was -10%. Sirtio Score doesn't use that raw number directly -- it's first blended toward the average trader's return, proportional to how little or much track record exists for this wallet, then measured against how uncertain that blended estimate still is. A thin sample or an inconsistent track record both widen that uncertainty and pull the score toward 50 (breakeven); a large, consistent sample lets the score move further from it in either direction.
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Resolved Aug 12, 2026
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
Resolved Aug 12, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Resolved Aug 12, 2026
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?
Resolved Aug 10, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
Resolved Aug 9, 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
Resolved Aug 7, 2026
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Resolved Aug 7, 2026
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
Resolved Aug 6, 2026
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August?
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August?
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
Resolved Aug 4, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
Resolved Aug 2, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?
Resolved Aug 2, 2026
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
Resolved Aug 2, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?
Resolved Jul 31, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?
Resolved Jul 30, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?
Resolved Jul 28, 2026
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Resolved Jul 27, 2026
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?
Resolved Jul 27, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?
Resolved Jul 26, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
Resolved Jul 25, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22?
Resolved Jul 25, 2026
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 21?
Resolved Jul 25, 2026
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Resolved Jul 21, 2026
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
Resolved Jul 21, 2026
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
Resolved Jul 21, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 20?
Resolved Jul 21, 2026
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?
Resolved Jul 20, 2026
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by July 14?
Resolved Jul 20, 2026
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
Resolved Jul 11, 2026
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
Resolved Jul 10, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Resolved Jul 10, 2026
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?
Resolved Jul 9, 2026
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Resolved Jun 29, 2026
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?
Resolved Jun 28, 2026
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?
Resolved Jun 25, 2026
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?
Resolved Jun 25, 2026
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?
Resolved Jun 24, 2026
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?
Resolved Jun 17, 2026
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Resolved Jun 17, 2026
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?
Resolved Jun 14, 2026
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?
Resolved Jun 14, 2026
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Resolved Jun 14, 2026
Israel closes its airspace by June 14?
Resolved Jun 14, 2026
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?
Resolved Jun 13, 2026
Israel closes its airspace by June 13?
Resolved Jun 13, 2026
Israel closes its airspace by June 11?
Resolved Jun 11, 2026
Spurs vs. Knicks
Resolved Jun 11, 2026
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?
Resolved Jun 11, 2026
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?
Resolved Jun 9, 2026
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Resolved Jun 7, 2026
Iran closes its airspace by July 15?
Resolved Jun 7, 2026
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Resolved Jun 7, 2026
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Resolved Jun 7, 2026
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?
Resolved Jun 4, 2026
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?
Resolved Jun 1, 2026
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?
Resolved May 26, 2026
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?
Resolved May 26, 2026
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?
Resolved May 26, 2026
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
Resolved May 25, 2026
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Resolved May 25, 2026
Israel closes its airspace by May 24?
Resolved May 25, 2026
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?
Resolved May 23, 2026
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?
Resolved May 23, 2026
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
Resolved May 23, 2026
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Resolved May 23, 2026
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Resolved May 22, 2026
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
Resolved May 22, 2026
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
Resolved May 22, 2026
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Resolved May 21, 2026
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?
Resolved May 21, 2026
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?
Resolved May 18, 2026
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
Resolved May 17, 2026