Leaderboard rank
#32
Over the last 90 days, coali10 closed 29 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +34% per position. Based on Sirtio's Bayesian-shrunk skill model, coali10 shows a real, if more moderate, edge over the average tracked trader and currently ranks #32 on Sirtio's leaderboard.
Avg edge (per position)
+34%
Positions (90d)
29
64.6
See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.
This trader's average return across 29 resolved positions was +34%. Sirtio Score doesn't use that raw number directly -- it's first blended toward the average trader's return, proportional to how little or much track record exists for this wallet, then measured against how uncertain that blended estimate still is. A thin sample or an inconsistent track record both widen that uncertainty and pull the score toward 50 (breakeven); a large, consistent sample lets the score move further from it in either direction.
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
Resolved Aug 12, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Resolved Aug 6, 2026
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
Resolved Aug 2, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
Resolved Aug 1, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?
Resolved Aug 1, 2026
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Resolved Jul 29, 2026
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Resolved Jul 29, 2026
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
Resolved Jul 29, 2026
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
Resolved Jul 28, 2026
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?
Resolved Jul 26, 2026
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?
Resolved Jul 25, 2026
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Resolved Jul 25, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays AND Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals AND Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians
Resolved Jul 24, 2026
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?
Resolved Jul 23, 2026
Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27?
Resolved Jul 21, 2026
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?
Resolved Jul 19, 2026
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Resolved Jul 19, 2026
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
Resolved Jul 19, 2026
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Resolved Jul 19, 2026
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Resolved Jul 16, 2026
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Resolved Jul 14, 2026
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?
Resolved Jul 13, 2026
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?
Resolved Jul 12, 2026
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Resolved Jul 11, 2026
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Resolved Jul 9, 2026
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance
Resolved Jul 7, 2026
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Resolved Jul 7, 2026