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youngcheese

View on Polymarket

Tier

Good

Over the last 90 days, youngcheese closed 38 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +61% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, youngcheese shows a real edge over the average tracked trader, though a more moderate one and currently sits at rank #71 on Sirtio's leaderboard.

Rank

#71

Sirtio score

69.3

Avg edge (per position)

+61%

Positions (90d)

38

Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 38 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 59% of youngcheese's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.

Sirtio Score Breakdown

See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.

Raw avg return

+61%

across 38 positions

→Shrunk toward the pool average, weighted by sample size

Z-score

+5.05

distance from average, adjusted for confidence

→Converted to a 0-100 scale

Sirtio score

69.3

The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.

The best single trade in this window was +$12,627 on "Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?" (a 131% return). The worst was a -$466 loss on "Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?".

Top 5 Wins (Last 90 Days)

Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?

Yes

+$12,627131%

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes

+$8,899320%

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?

No

+$6,3752362%

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

Yes

+$5,404144%

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes

+$4,894114%

Top 5 Losses (Last 90 Days)

Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?

No

-$466-100%

Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?

No

-$63-15%

Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 28, 2026?

Yes

-$22-13%

Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 3, 2026?

Yes

-$20-44%

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?

No

-$9-8%

All Positions (Since Tracked Sep 1, 2026)

Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?

Resolved Sep 21, 2026Sold49c entry
+$7777%

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?

Resolved Sep 21, 2026SoldNo13c entry
-$9-8%

Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Resolved Sep 17, 2026Force-closedYes43c entry
+$2,87590%

Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?

Resolved Sep 15, 2026Force-closedNo17c entry
-$466-100%

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?

Resolved Sep 9, 2026Force-closedYes62c entry
+$2,78461%

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET

Resolved Sep 9, 2026Force-closedUp26c entry
-$5-100%

Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?

Resolved Sep 7, 2026Force-closedYes43c entry
+$12,627131%

Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 9, 2026?

Resolved Sep 4, 2026SoldNo77c entry
+$1,91229%

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?

Resolved Sep 4, 2026SoldYes33c entry
+$1,888195%

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 7, 2026?

Resolved Sep 4, 2026SoldYes52c entry
+$2,70589%

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?

Resolved Sep 4, 2026SoldNo4c entry
+$6,3752362%

Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 3, 2026?

Resolved Sep 4, 2026SoldNo4c entry
+$2,3052305%

Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?

Resolved Sep 3, 2026SoldYes40c entry
+$5,404144%

Will GPT-6 be released by October 31, 2026?

Resolved Sep 3, 2026SoldYes49c entry
+$2,31494%

Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?

Resolved Sep 3, 2026SoldYes45c entry
+$2,339115%

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Sep 3, 2026SoldYes74c entry
+$2,81631%

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?

Resolved Sep 3, 2026SoldYes83c entry
+$1020%

Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?

Resolved Sep 3, 2026SoldYes56c entry
+$24575%

Will GPT-6 be released by November 30, 2026?

Resolved Sep 3, 2026SoldYes63c entry
+$84153%

Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 4, 2026?

Resolved Sep 3, 2026RedeemedYes1c entry
-$4-100%

Will the next Google Gemini Flash model be released on September 3, 2026?

Resolved Sep 2, 2026SoldYes18c entry
-$20-44%

Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?

Resolved Sep 2, 2026SoldNo20c entry
-$63-15%

Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 15, 2026?

Resolved Sep 1, 2026SoldYes56c entry
+$77952%

Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?

Resolved Sep 1, 2026SoldYes70c entry
+$2,18131%

Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?

Resolved Aug 31, 2026SoldYes47c entry
+$63276%

Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?

Resolved Aug 30, 2026SoldYes21c entry
+$46555%

Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?

Resolved Aug 26, 2026SoldNo55c entry
+$43653%

Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 28, 2026?

Resolved Jul 24, 2026SoldYes5c entry
-$22-13%

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?

Resolved Jul 24, 2026SoldYes22c entry
+$4,714123%

Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 27, 2026?

Resolved Jul 23, 2026SoldYes3c entry
-$9-30%

Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?

Resolved Jul 23, 2026SoldNo14c entry
+$137%

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?

Resolved Jul 23, 2026SoldNo12c entry
+$2910%

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?

Resolved Jul 23, 2026SoldNo48c entry
+$1,253104%

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?

Resolved Jul 23, 2026SoldYes54c entry
+$89926%

Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Resolved Jul 18, 2026SoldYes40c entry
+$81941%

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Resolved Jul 17, 2026SoldYes17c entry
+$4,894114%

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Resolved Jul 17, 2026SoldYes14c entry
+$8,899320%

Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?

Resolved Jul 7, 2026SoldYes34c entry
+$926185%

Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance

Resolved Jul 1, 2026SoldBelgium3c entry
+$1,5993198%

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Resolved Jun 30, 2026SoldYes17c entry
+$15770%

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 17, 2026?

Resolved Jun 30, 2026SoldYes69c entry
+$26435%

Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?

Resolved Jun 30, 2026SoldYes17c entry
+$10120%

Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?

Resolved Jun 30, 2026SoldNo40c entry
+$131%