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0x66e7ce...e68bcd

View on Polymarket

Tier

Great

Over the last 90 days, 0x66e7ce...e68bcd closed 492 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +16% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, 0x66e7ce...e68bcd has consistently outperformed the average tracked trader and currently sits at rank #28 on Sirtio's leaderboard.

Rank

#28

Sirtio score

81.1

Avg edge (per position)

+16%

Positions (90d)

492

Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 492 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 53% of 0x66e7ce...e68bcd's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.

Sirtio Score Breakdown

See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.

Raw avg return

+16%

across 492 positions

→Shrunk toward the pool average, weighted by sample size

Z-score

+9.04

distance from average, adjusted for confidence

→Converted to a 0-100 scale

Sirtio score

81.1

The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.

The best single trade in this window was +$2,773 on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?" (a 28% return). The worst was a -$1,144 loss on "Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?".

Top 5 Wins (Last 90 Days)

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Yes

+$2,77328%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Yes

+$1,66631%

Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open?

Yes

+$1,54138%

Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?

Yes

+$1,230132%

Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?

Yes

+$1,22814%

Top 5 Losses (Last 90 Days)

Will Elaine Pelino win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?

Yes

-$1,144-38%

Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes

-$349-57%

Will Aaron Guckian win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?

Yes

-$222-41%

Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?

Yes

-$187-27%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Yes

-$153-6%

All Positions (Since Tracked Sep 1, 2026)

Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes46c entry
-$2-9%

Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes52c entry
+$146%

Will the Republican Party win the OH-07 House seat?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes26c entry
+$70263%

Will the Republican Party win the CO-08 House seat?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes45c entry
+$1427%

Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes67c entry
+$10625%

Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes41c entry
+$413%

Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes30c entry
-$0-0%

Will the Democratic Party win the CO-08 House seat?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes45c entry
+$5722%

Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes26c entry
+$717%

Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes35c entry
+$16973%

Will the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes58c entry
+$394%

Will the Democratic Party win the IA-01 House seat?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes32c entry
+$44%

Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes81c entry
+$86%

Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes53c entry
+$2915%

Will Natalie Nakase win the 2026 WNBA Coach of the Year award?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes17c entry
+$280%

Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes67c entry
+$10211%

Will Joe Burrow win the 2026 NFL MVP?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes8c entry
+$025%

Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes52c entry
+$8425%

Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes58c entry
+$506%

Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes80c entry
+$346%

Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes53c entry
+$729%

Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes47c entry
+$05%

Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes70c entry
+$3413%

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-13 House seat?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes61c entry
+$669%

Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes50c entry
-$6-2%

Will Pierre Gasly finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes50c entry
+$01%

Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes27c entry
-$34-13%

Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes64c entry
-$49-3%

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-24 House seat?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes50c entry
+$11%

Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes72c entry
+$173%

Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldNo30c entry
+$217%

Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldNo65c entry
+$2344%

Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes37c entry
+$14%

Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes65c entry
-$0-0%

Will Denny Hamlin win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes47c entry
-$29-12%

Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes56c entry
+$1939%

Will the Democratic Party win the AK-AL House seat?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes92c entry
+$627%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes20c entry
-$8-55%

Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes63c entry
+$386%

Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes4c entry
+$011%

Will the Carolina Hurricanes be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedNo90c entry
+$111%

Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes57c entry
-$4-19%

Will the Texas Rangers clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes55c entry
-$16-10%

Will the Democratic Party win the NE-01 House seat?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes72c entry
+$3016%

Will the Arizona Diamondbacks clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes57c entry
+$8223%

Will the Republican Party win the IL-17 House seat?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes74c entry
+$63%

Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 National League Championship Series?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes44c entry
-$4-5%

Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$61%

Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes42c entry
+$576%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes66c entry
+$7232%

Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win more than 99.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedU 99.553c entry
-$70-5%

Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes55c entry
+$35814%

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes34c entry
-$11-8%

Will the Republican Party win the NJ-07 House seat?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes20c entry
+$743%

Will the Philadelphia Phillies clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes39c entry
+$916%

Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes45c entry
+$35%

Will the Democratic Party win the IL-17 House seat?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes94c entry
+$04%

Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes74c entry
-$9-47%

Will Donald Trump be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes22c entry
+$19%

Will the Houston Astros clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes52c entry
-$13-4%

Will the Democrats win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedNo99c entry
+$51%

Will the Democratic Party win the PA-13 House seat?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedNo96c entry
+$14%

Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes34c entry
+$4532%

Will the Republican Party win the IL-16 House seat?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes50c entry
+$01%

Will Gabby Williams win the 2026 WNBA Defensive Player of the Year award?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes39c entry
+$91104%

Will the Republican Party win the NY-04 House seat?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes52c entry
+$94%

Will the Democratic Party win the IL-16 House seat?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes70c entry
+$43%

Will Iowa have the closest Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes68c entry
+$2623%

Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes54c entry
+$10%

Will Houston Astros win the 2026 AL West title?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes44c entry
+$11314%

Will the Democratic Party win the MI-07 House seat?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes47c entry
+$6215%

Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes45c entry
+$50727%

Will Texas Rangers win the 2026 AL West title?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedYes52c entry
-$40-3%

Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026MergedNo95c entry
+$545%

Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldYes48c entry
+$00%

Will the Democratic Party win the TX-05 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026SoldNo93c entry
+$65%

Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026SoldYes93c entry
+$43%

Will the Democratic Party win the ID-02 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026SoldNo95c entry
+$31%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026SoldYes9c entry
-$2-29%

Will the Republican Party win the NM-03 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes56c entry
+$173%

Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the October 2026 meeting?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes51c entry
+$5311%

Will Ryan Blaney win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes41c entry
+$539%

Will the Republicans win the Idaho governor race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedNo1c entry
+$309900%

Will the Democratic Party win the MN-06 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes65c entry
+$56%

Will the Democratic Party win the TX-06 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedNo94c entry
+$67%

Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes54c entry
+$56119%

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes47c entry
+$71356%

Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes66c entry
+$43125%

Will the Democratic Party win the TX-29 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026SoldYes94c entry
+$02%

Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026SoldYes8c entry
+$317%

Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026SoldYes54c entry
+$94%

Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026SoldYes49c entry
+$124%

Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedNo99c entry
+$01%

Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedNo88c entry
+$214%

Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes74c entry
+$33%

Will the Republicans win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedNo99c entry
+$01%

Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes31c entry
+$2948%

Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedNo53c entry
+$1689%

Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes47c entry
+$2511%

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes33c entry
+$126111%

Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes65c entry
+$73%

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026SoldYes40c entry
+$5331%

Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026SoldNo77c entry
+$95%

Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026SoldYes16c entry
+$2610%

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026SoldYes39c entry
+$10025%

Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026SoldYes54c entry
-$21-20%

Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedNo90c entry
+$111%

Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$108%

Will the Democratic Party win the VA-07 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedNo7c entry
+$191329%

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes54c entry
+$1363%

No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedNo24c entry
+$38315%

Will the Democratic Party win the TN-03 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedNo95c entry
+$35%

Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes15c entry
+$75491%

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in September?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedNo84c entry
+$1419%

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes48c entry
+$4243%

Will the Democratic Party win the TX-27 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedNo92c entry
+$89%

Will the Democratic Party win the NC-08 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedNo92c entry
+$177%

Will the Democratic Party win the AL-05 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes67c entry
+$102%

Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes29c entry
+$172231%

Will the Democratic Party win the MD-01 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes65c entry
+$24455%

Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedNo97c entry
+$103%

Will the Republican Party win the CA-13 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes69c entry
+$608%

Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes50c entry
+$34886%

Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026SoldYes47c entry
+$316%

Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026SoldNo45c entry
+$31%

Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-09 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026SoldYes92c entry
+$24%

Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026SoldYes20c entry
+$3023%

Will Indiana Fever win the 2026 WNBA Finals?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026SoldYes84c entry
+$12311%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes52c entry
-$6-3%

Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes54c entry
-$4-5%

Will Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedNo94c entry
+$266%

Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes43c entry
+$3920%

Will the Republican Party win the NY-17 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026SoldYes47c entry
+$354%

Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026SoldYes2c entry
-$0-9%

Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes51c entry
-$0-1%

Will the Republican Party win the NJ-09 House seat?

Resolved Sep 25, 2026MergedYes56c entry
+$165%

No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldYes34c entry
+$1112%

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldYes40c entry
+$746%

Will Trinidad Chambliss win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldYes15c entry
+$723%

Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldYes51c entry
+$687%

Will the Republican Party win the IA-01 House seat?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes40c entry
-$5-6%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes59c entry
-$152-4%

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes41c entry
-$65-9%

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes54c entry
-$153-6%

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldYes6c entry
-$3-12%

Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldNo35c entry
-$81-15%

Will Las Vegas Aces win the 2026 WNBA Finals?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldYes49c entry
+$60%

Will the Republican Party win the NJ-05 House seat?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldYes3c entry
+$176%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldYes43c entry
+$32423%

Will the Republican Party win the TX-34 House seat?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldYes42c entry
+$3856%

Will the Republican Party win the PA-07 House seat?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldYes47c entry
+$324%

Will the Republican Party win the NY-01 House seat?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldYes72c entry
+$1620%

Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after November 2026 meeting?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldYes1c entry
+$0745%

No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the October 2026 meeting?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldYes55c entry
+$218%

Will New York Yankees win the 2026 American League Championship Series?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes54c entry
-$40-2%

Will the Democratic Party win the NY-01 House seat?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes45c entry
+$111%

Will the Republican Party win the AZ-01 House seat?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$104%

Will the Democratic Party win the CO-04 House seat?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes51c entry
+$397%

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldYes47c entry
-$57-20%

Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldYes29c entry
+$2717%

Will the Democratic Party win the OK-05 House seat?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldYes22c entry
+$811%

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the September 2026 meeting?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes44c entry
+$213%

Will Chicago White Sox win the 2026 American League Championship Series?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes55c entry
+$13872%

Will Maine have the closest Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes70c entry
+$87%

Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes39c entry
+$31%

Will the Democratic Party win the TX-15 House seat?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes55c entry
-$34-11%

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$115%

Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldYes57c entry
+$1612%

Will the Democratic Party win the MS-02 House seat?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldYes93c entry
+$37%

Will the Republican Party win the TX-15 House seat?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldYes52c entry
-$7-5%

Will Joey Logano win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldYes23c entry
-$0-2%

Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldYes44c entry
+$10112%

Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in September?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes48c entry
+$04%

Will Ben Rice hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes55c entry
-$1-8%

Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes44c entry
+$3415%

Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026MergedYes25c entry
+$5758%

Will the Milwaukee Brewers win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026SoldYes51c entry
+$714%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026SoldYes63c entry
+$12536%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026SoldNo90c entry
+$98%

Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026SoldYes34c entry
+$3115%

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026SoldYes43c entry
-$58-8%

Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026SoldYes63c entry
-$43-7%

Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026MergedYes74c entry
+$473%

Will the Republican Party win the MI-07 House seat?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026MergedYes48c entry
+$344%

Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026MergedNo73c entry
+$13336%

Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026SoldNo40c entry
+$65%

Will the Republican Party win the PA-11 House seat?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026SoldYes91c entry
+$36%

Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026SoldYes39c entry
+$1120%

Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026SoldYes4c entry
+$10266%

Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026SoldYes5c entry
+$201511%

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026SoldYes54c entry
+$248%

Will the Bank of Korea hold at the October 2026 meeting?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026MergedYes39c entry
+$315%

Will Tyler Reddick win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026MergedYes68c entry
+$65%

Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026SoldYes10c entry
+$247%

Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026SoldYes60c entry
+$113%

Will the Republican Party win the TX-17 House seat?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026SoldYes94c entry
+$00%

Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series?

Resolved Sep 23, 2026SoldYes10c entry
+$04%

Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?

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Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?

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Will La Bola Negra win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

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Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?

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Will Carson Hocevar win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship?

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Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals?

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Will the Democratic Party win the FL-08 House seat?

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Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?

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Will Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?

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Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

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Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

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Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?

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Will Josh Allen win the 2026 NFL MVP?

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Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?

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Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?

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Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026?

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Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?

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Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series?

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Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

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Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?

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Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Will New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?

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Will the Cleveland Guardians clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?

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Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?

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Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?

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Will Malachi Toney win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?

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Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Grüne Over/Under 5%?

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Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: Linke Over/Under 11%?

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Will The Debut win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

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Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

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Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

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Will Houston Astros win the 2026 American League Championship Series?

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Will Digger win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?

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Will the Toronto Blue Jays clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?

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Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

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Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%?

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Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

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Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?

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Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?

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Will Chicago Cubs win the 2026 National League Championship Series?

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Will the Republican Party win the NV-03 House seat?

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Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

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Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?

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Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series?

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Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series?

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Will JJ Wetherholt win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?

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Will the Democratic Party win the CA-45 House seat?

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Will the San Diego Padres clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?

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Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title?

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Will the September 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?

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Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

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Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 NL East title?

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Will John Shulli be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware?

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Will Michael Katz be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware?

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Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?

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Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

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Will Donald Trump be TIME Person of the Year 2026?

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Will it rain in New Orleans, LA on September 15?

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Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?

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Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?

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Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

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Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 AL East title?

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Will the Democratic Party win the NV-03 House seat?

Resolved Sep 15, 2026MergedYes50c entry
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Will Jordan Love win the 2026 NFL MVP?

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Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?

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Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

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Will Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?

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Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 AL West title?

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Will “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding drama series?

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Will “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?

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Will “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?

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Will “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?

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Will the Democratic Party win the FL-09 House seat?

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Will Claire Danes – “The Beast In Me” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie?

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Will Sarah Pidgeon – “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. and Carolyn Bessette” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie?

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Will Will Venable win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?

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Will Noah Wyle – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a drama series?

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Will Tom Pelphrey – “Task” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a drama series?

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Will three people dissent the September Fed decision?

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Will Mark Ruffalo – “Task” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a drama series?

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Will Zendaya – “Euphoria” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a drama series?

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Will Nick Offerman – “Margo’s Got Money Troubles” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actor in a comedy series?

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Will one person dissent the September Fed decision?

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Will “Hacks” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series?

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Will Rhea Seehorn – “Pluribus” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a drama series?

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Will the Democratic Party win the OH-09 House seat?

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Will Katherine LaNasa – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a drama series?

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Will Sepideh Moafi – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding supporting actress in a drama series?

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Will “Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding limited or anthology series?

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Will Martin Short – “Only Murders in the Building” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a comedy series?

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Will Sarah Snook – “All Her Fault” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actress in a limited or anthology series or movie?

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Will Jacob Misiorowski win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?

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Will “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding comedy series?

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Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?

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Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?

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Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

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Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?

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Will the Democratic Party win the AR-02 House seat?

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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

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Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?

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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

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Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?

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Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?

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Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

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Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

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Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?

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Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?

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Sweden Parliamentary Election: C Over/Under 6%?

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Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

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Will Lamar Jackson win the 2026 NFL MVP?

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Will Trevor Lawrence win the 2026 NFL MVP?

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Will Sam Leavitt win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?

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Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?

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Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix?

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Will Dak Prescott win the 2026 NFL MVP?

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Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?

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Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

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Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?

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Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?

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Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the September meeting?

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Will annual inflation be 3.5% in August?

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Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?

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Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship?

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Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?

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Will Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?

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Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award?

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Will Boston Red Sox win the 2026 American League Championship Series?

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Will Anthony DiLorenzo be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?

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Will Christopher Bell win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series championship?

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Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

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Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 8, 2026?

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Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 6, 2026?

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Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?

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Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 11, 2026?

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Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 7, 2026?

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Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-24?

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Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?

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Will the Democratic Party win the TN-09 House seat?

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Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Will the Republican Party win the CT-05 House seat?

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Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?

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Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

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Will Nolan McLean win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?

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Will the Republican Party win the MT-01 House seat?

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Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?

Resolved Sep 2, 2026SoldYes59c entry
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Will Tram Nguyen be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?

Resolved Sep 2, 2026SoldYes28c entry
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Will Jeromie Whalen be the MA-01 Democratic nominee?

Resolved Sep 2, 2026SoldYes36c entry
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Resolved Sep 2, 2026SoldYes52c entry
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Will Richard Neal be the MA-01 Democratic nominee?

Resolved Sep 2, 2026SoldYes43c entry
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Will Patrick Roath be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?

Resolved Sep 2, 2026SoldYes35c entry
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Will Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?

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Will the Toronto Maple Leafs be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Resolved Sep 1, 2026MergedYes54c entry
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Will the Republican Party win the PA-09 House seat?

Resolved Sep 1, 2026MergedYes96c entry
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Will Amanda Anisimova win the 2026 Women’s US Open?

Resolved Sep 1, 2026MergedNo95c entry
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Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's US Open?

Resolved Aug 31, 2026SoldYes8c entry
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Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award?

Resolved Aug 31, 2026MergedYes3c entry
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Will Iowa have the closest Governor's race in 2026?

Resolved Aug 31, 2026MergedNo89c entry
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Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's US Open?

Resolved Aug 31, 2026MergedYes65c entry
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Will the Republican Party win the PA-16 House seat?

Resolved Aug 31, 2026SoldYes89c entry
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Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?

Resolved Aug 31, 2026SoldYes29c entry
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Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%?

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Will the Democratic Party win the TX-38 House seat?

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Will the Democratic Party win the WI-05 House seat?

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Will the Republican Party win the TX-38 House seat?

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Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?

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Will Jake Auchincloss be the MA-04 Democratic nominee?

Resolved Aug 29, 2026MergedYes51c entry
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Will Michael Echols be the Republican nominee for LA-05?

Resolved Aug 29, 2026MergedNo88c entry
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Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?

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Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?

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Will the Republicans win the Alabama governor race in 2026?

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Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?

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Will the Republican Party win the MI-10 House seat?

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Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

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Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

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Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series?

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Will the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat?

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Will the Democratic Party win the TX-24 House seat?

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Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026?

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Will New Hampshire have the closest Governor's race in 2026?

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Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?

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Will Gentner Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?

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Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?

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Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

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Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be TIME Person of the Year 2026?

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Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

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Will Dan McKee win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election?

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2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

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Will the Democratic Party win the WI-01 House seat?

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Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship?

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AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5

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