Leaderboard rank
#44
Over the last 90 days, casualbet2020 closed 1 resolved position on Polymarket at an average return of -18% per position. Based on Sirtio's Bayesian-shrunk skill model, casualbet2020 shows a real, if more moderate, edge over the average tracked trader and currently ranks #44 on Sirtio's leaderboard.
Avg edge (per position)
-18%
Positions (90d)
1
60.4
See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.
This trader's average return across 1 resolved position was -18%. Sirtio Score doesn't use that raw number directly -- it's first blended toward the average trader's return, proportional to how little or much track record exists for this wallet, then measured against how uncertain that blended estimate still is. A thin sample or an inconsistent track record both widen that uncertainty and pull the score toward 50 (breakeven); a large, consistent sample lets the score move further from it in either direction.
Map Handicap: M80 (-1.5) vs Azure Dragon Gaming (+1.5)
Resolved Jun 2, 2026