Leaderboard rank
#33
Over the last 90 days, eCash closed 54 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +14% per position. Based on Sirtio's Bayesian-shrunk skill model, eCash shows a real, if more moderate, edge over the average tracked trader and currently ranks #33 on Sirtio's leaderboard.
Avg edge (per position)
+14%
Positions (90d)
54
64.4
See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.
This trader's average return across 54 resolved positions was +14%. Sirtio Score doesn't use that raw number directly -- it's first blended toward the average trader's return, proportional to how little or much track record exists for this wallet, then measured against how uncertain that blended estimate still is. A thin sample or an inconsistent track record both widen that uncertainty and pull the score toward 50 (breakeven); a large, consistent sample lets the score move further from it in either direction.
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
Resolved Aug 9, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?
Resolved Aug 9, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?
Resolved Aug 9, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 11, 2026?
Resolved Aug 9, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026?
Resolved Aug 9, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
Resolved Aug 8, 2026
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
Resolved Aug 7, 2026
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
Resolved Aug 6, 2026
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?
Resolved Aug 6, 2026
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
Resolved Aug 6, 2026
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
Resolved Aug 4, 2026
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Resolved Aug 3, 2026
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
Resolved Aug 3, 2026
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Resolved Jul 29, 2026
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Resolved Jul 29, 2026
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
Resolved Jul 26, 2026
World Cup Finals: Final Score Even or Odd?
Resolved Jul 19, 2026
Will "The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 125m and 130m?
Resolved Jul 18, 2026
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?
Resolved Jul 18, 2026
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Resolved Jul 18, 2026
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 18?
Resolved Jul 16, 2026
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Resolved Jul 9, 2026
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Resolved Jul 7, 2026
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
Resolved Jul 1, 2026
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Resolved Jun 26, 2026
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Resolved Jun 22, 2026
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
Resolved Jun 22, 2026
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?
Resolved Jun 21, 2026
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?
Resolved Jun 21, 2026
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Resolved Jun 19, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Resolved Jun 15, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Resolved Jun 15, 2026
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
Resolved Jun 11, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Resolved Jun 10, 2026
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Resolved May 31, 2026
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Resolved May 30, 2026
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Resolved May 29, 2026
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31?
Resolved May 29, 2026
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
Resolved May 29, 2026
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Resolved May 28, 2026
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?
Resolved May 28, 2026
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?
Resolved May 27, 2026
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?
Resolved May 26, 2026
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?
Resolved May 26, 2026
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Resolved May 25, 2026
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Resolved May 25, 2026
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games?
Resolved May 25, 2026
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 102m and 112m?
Resolved May 25, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Resolved May 24, 2026
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Resolved May 20, 2026
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?
Resolved May 19, 2026
Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Resolved May 16, 2026