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doc.holliday

View on Polymarket

Over the last 30 days, doc.holliday closed 6 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +158% per position. That's too few resolved trades for Sirtio to say with any confidence how doc.holliday compares to the rest of the tracked pool -- at least 10 are required before a trader is ranked or placed in a tier.

Rank

Provisional -- needs 10+ resolved positions to rank

Sirtio score

80.3

Avg edge (per position)

+158%

Positions (30d)

6

Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 6 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 99% of doc.holliday's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.

Sirtio Score Breakdown

See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.

Raw avg return

+158%

across 6 positions

→Shrunk toward the pool average, weighted by sample size

Z-score

+4.40

distance from average, adjusted for confidence

→Converted to a 0-100 scale

Sirtio score

80.3

The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.

The best single trade in this window was +$95 on "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22?" (a 798% return). The worst was a -$23 loss on "Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on October 17?".

Top 5 Wins (Last 30 Days)

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22?

No

+$95798%

Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 1PM ET

Down

+$92330%

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 13?

No

+$66255%

Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 October 19-25?

Yes

+$39131%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET

Down

+$36398%

Top 5 Losses (Last 30 Days)

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on October 17?

No

-$23-100%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET

Down

-$16-100%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 11PM ET

Down

-$13-100%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 9PM ET

Down

-$6-100%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 1AM ET

Down

-$4-100%

All Positions (Since Tracked Oct 13, 2026)

Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 7AM ET

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldDown23c entry
+$1689%

Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 4PM ET

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldDown17c entry
+$27101%

Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldDown11c entry
+$118%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET

Resolved Nov 1, 2026Force-closedDown8c entry
-$16-100%

Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 1PM ET

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldDown18c entry
+$92330%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3PM ET

Resolved Oct 30, 2026SoldDown48c entry
+$339%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 11PM ET

Resolved Oct 30, 2026RedeemedDown3c entry
-$13-100%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET

Resolved Oct 30, 2026SoldUp54c entry
+$851%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET

Resolved Oct 30, 2026SoldUp44c entry
+$1280%

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 30?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026SoldNo19c entry
+$28112%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

Resolved Oct 29, 2026RedeemedDown1c entry
-$2-100%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 9PM ET

Resolved Oct 28, 2026RedeemedDown11c entry
-$6-100%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET

Resolved Oct 27, 2026RedeemedDown11c entry
+$239%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldUp41c entry
+$05%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldDown16c entry
+$3173%

Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 October 19-25?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldYes17c entry
+$39131%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET

Resolved Oct 25, 2026RedeemedUp9c entry
-$2-100%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

Resolved Oct 25, 2026RedeemedDown2c entry
-$1-100%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 10AM ET

Resolved Oct 25, 2026RedeemedDown7c entry
-$3-100%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 1AM ET

Resolved Oct 23, 2026RedeemedDown9c entry
-$4-100%

Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 October 19-25?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026SoldYes1c entry
-$0-1%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 22, 8PM ET

Resolved Oct 23, 2026RedeemedUp22c entry
-$1-14%

Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 October 19-25?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026SoldYes3c entry
-$0-24%

Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 October 19-25?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026SoldYes4c entry
+$436%

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22?

Resolved Oct 22, 2026SoldNo5c entry
+$95798%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 8PM ET

Resolved Oct 22, 2026RedeemedDown25c entry
-$1-100%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldDown22c entry
+$6145%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET

Resolved Oct 20, 2026SoldDown22c entry
+$6318%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 19, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET

Resolved Oct 20, 2026RedeemedDown7c entry
-$3-100%

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on October 17?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026RedeemedNo1c entry
-$23-100%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldUp33c entry
+$9176%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldDown36c entry
+$722%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET

Resolved Oct 15, 2026RedeemedDown0c entry
-$3-100%

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 15?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldNo2c entry
+$5265%

Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 October 12-18?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldYes4c entry
+$19140%

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldDown7c entry
+$1107%

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldDown37c entry
+$115%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET

Resolved Oct 14, 2026RedeemedDown5c entry
-$3-100%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET

Resolved Oct 14, 2026RedeemedDown2c entry
-$1-100%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldDown17c entry
+$17185%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET

Resolved Oct 14, 2026RedeemedDown7c entry
-$2-100%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldDown7c entry
+$36398%

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 14?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldNo3c entry
+$482%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldUp41c entry
+$144%

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 13?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldNo3c entry
+$66255%

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 14?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldNo2c entry
-$1-15%

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 14?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldNo2c entry
+$07%

Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in October?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldYes2c entry
+$19%

Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldDown39c entry
+$144%