Leaderboard rank
#57
Over the last 90 days, mr.ozi closed 107 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of -7% per position. Based on Sirtio's Bayesian-shrunk skill model, mr.ozi has underperformed the average tracked trader over this window and currently ranks #57 on Sirtio's leaderboard.
Avg edge (per position)
-7%
Positions (90d)
107
31.5
See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.
This trader's average return across 107 resolved positions was -7%. Sirtio Score doesn't use that raw number directly -- it's first blended toward the average trader's return, proportional to how little or much track record exists for this wallet, then measured against how uncertain that blended estimate still is. A thin sample or an inconsistent track record both widen that uncertainty and pull the score toward 50 (breakeven); a large, consistent sample lets the score move further from it in either direction.
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
Resolved Aug 13, 2026
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Resolved Aug 13, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Resolved Aug 12, 2026
Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Resolved Aug 12, 2026
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Resolved Aug 10, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?
Resolved Aug 8, 2026
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
Resolved Aug 8, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
Resolved Aug 4, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Resolved Aug 4, 2026
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?
Resolved Aug 1, 2026
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
Resolved Jul 31, 2026
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?
Resolved Jul 31, 2026
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Resolved Jul 30, 2026
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
Resolved Jul 29, 2026
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
Resolved Jul 19, 2026
Spread: England (-1.5)
Resolved Jul 15, 2026
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Argentina?
Resolved Jul 15, 2026
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
Resolved Jul 14, 2026
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?
Resolved Jul 7, 2026
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Resolved Jul 7, 2026
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Resolved Jun 30, 2026
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Resolved Jun 22, 2026
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Resolved Jun 22, 2026
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Resolved Jun 22, 2026
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?
Resolved Jun 21, 2026
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?
Resolved Jun 21, 2026
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Resolved Jun 20, 2026
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Resolved Jun 19, 2026
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Resolved Jun 18, 2026
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?
Resolved Jun 17, 2026
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Resolved Jun 16, 2026
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Resolved Jun 16, 2026
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Resolved Jun 16, 2026
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Resolved Jun 14, 2026
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Resolved Jun 14, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Resolved Jun 13, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Resolved Jun 13, 2026
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Resolved Jun 12, 2026
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
Resolved Jun 12, 2026
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?
Resolved Jun 12, 2026
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?
Resolved Jun 12, 2026
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Resolved Jun 12, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Resolved Jun 11, 2026
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?
Resolved Jun 11, 2026
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Resolved Jun 11, 2026
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?
Resolved Jun 10, 2026
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?
Resolved Jun 10, 2026
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?
Resolved Jun 10, 2026
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Resolved Jun 10, 2026
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Resolved Jun 8, 2026
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Resolved Jun 8, 2026
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Resolved Jun 8, 2026
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw?
Resolved Jun 8, 2026
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?
Resolved Jun 8, 2026
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Resolved Jun 8, 2026
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Resolved Jun 8, 2026
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Resolved Jun 8, 2026
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Resolved Jun 7, 2026
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Resolved Jun 6, 2026
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?
Resolved Jun 6, 2026
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?
Resolved Jun 5, 2026
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Resolved Jun 3, 2026
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
Resolved Jun 3, 2026
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Resolved Jun 2, 2026
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Resolved Jun 2, 2026
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Resolved Jun 2, 2026
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026?
Resolved Jun 2, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Resolved Jun 2, 2026
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?
Resolved Jun 1, 2026
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Resolved May 31, 2026
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Resolved May 31, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Resolved May 30, 2026
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?
Resolved May 29, 2026
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?
Resolved May 29, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Resolved May 29, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Resolved May 29, 2026
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Resolved May 29, 2026
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
Resolved May 28, 2026
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Resolved May 28, 2026
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?
Resolved May 28, 2026
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Resolved May 28, 2026
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?
Resolved May 28, 2026
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?
Resolved May 27, 2026
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?
Resolved May 27, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Resolved May 27, 2026
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games?
Resolved May 26, 2026
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?
Resolved May 26, 2026
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Resolved May 26, 2026
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Resolved May 25, 2026
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Resolved May 22, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
Resolved May 22, 2026
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026?
Resolved May 22, 2026
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Resolved May 21, 2026
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
Resolved May 20, 2026
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?
Resolved May 20, 2026