Tier
Good
Over the last 90 days, RememberAmalek closed 109 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +28% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, RememberAmalek shows a real edge over the average tracked trader, though a more moderate one and currently sits at rank #87 on Sirtio's leaderboard.
Rank
#87
Sirtio score
71.0
Avg edge (per position)
+28%
Positions (90d)
109
Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 109 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 64% of RememberAmalek's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.
See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.
Raw avg return
+28%
across 109 positions
Z-score
+4.14
distance from average, adjusted for confidence
Sirtio score
71.0
The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.
The best single trade in this window was +$7,500 on "Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" (a 18% return). The worst was a -$664 loss on "Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?".
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
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Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
Yes
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
Yes
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
Yes
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
Yes
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Yes
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Yes
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
Yes
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
Yes
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?
Yes
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?
Yes
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?
Yes
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?
Yes
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
Yes
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
Yes
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Yes
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Yes
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
Yes
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
Yes
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October?
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October?
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 35%-40%?
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 35%-40%?
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Will Yakubu Adamu win the 2027 Bauchi State gubernatorial election?
Will Yakubu Adamu win the 2027 Bauchi State gubernatorial election?
Will Young Kim win the CA-40 House seat?
Will Young Kim win the CA-40 House seat?
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?
Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?
Will Mohammed Ashiru Isa win the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election?
Will Mohammed Ashiru Isa win the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election?
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?
Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?
Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Will Eno Umo Bassey win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election?
Will Eno Umo Bassey win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election?
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?
Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
Will Alia Hyacinth Iormem win the 2027 Benue State gubernatorial election?
Will Alia Hyacinth Iormem win the 2027 Benue State gubernatorial election?
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
Will Garba Yakubu Lado win the 2027 Katsina State gubernatorial election?
Will Garba Yakubu Lado win the 2027 Katsina State gubernatorial election?
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
Will Nwifuru Francis Ogbonna win the 2027 Ebonyi State gubernatorial election?
Will Nwifuru Francis Ogbonna win the 2027 Ebonyi State gubernatorial election?
Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?
Will Democrats win exactly 5 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?
Will Mbah Peter Ndubuisi win the 2027 Enugu State gubernatorial election?
Will Mbah Peter Ndubuisi win the 2027 Enugu State gubernatorial election?
Will Umaru Dikko Radda win the 2027 Katsina State gubernatorial election?
Will Umaru Dikko Radda win the 2027 Katsina State gubernatorial election?
Will Uba Sani win the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election?
Will Uba Sani win the 2027 Kaduna State gubernatorial election?
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?
Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by September 15, 2026?
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by September 15, 2026?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?
Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?
Will Ahmed Aliyu win the 2027 Sokoto State gubernatorial election?
Will Ahmed Aliyu win the 2027 Sokoto State gubernatorial election?
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?
Will Democrats win 6 or more House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?
Will Democrats win 6 or more House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November?
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November?
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?
Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31?
Will Trump visit North Korea by December 31?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
Will John James Akpanudoedehe win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election?
Will John James Akpanudoedehe win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election?
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?
Will Oborevwori Sheriff Francis Orohwedor win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election?
Will Oborevwori Sheriff Francis Orohwedor win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election?
Will Iran target Kuwait by August 31, 2026?
Will Iran target Kuwait by August 31, 2026?
Will there be 40 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?
Will there be 40 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?
Will there be between 35 and 39 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?
Will there be between 35 and 39 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 30%-35%?
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 30%-35%?
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 15%-25%?
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-02 House election by 15%-25%?
Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?
Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?
Will Democrats win fewer than 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?
Will Democrats win fewer than 3 House seats in North Carolina in the 2026 midterm elections?
Will Mutfwang Caleb Manasseh win the 2027 Plateau State gubernatorial election?
Will Mutfwang Caleb Manasseh win the 2027 Plateau State gubernatorial election?
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Will Otu Bassey Edet win the 2027 Cross River State gubernatorial election?
Will Otu Bassey Edet win the 2027 Cross River State gubernatorial election?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Will Mohammed Umaru Bago win the 2027 Niger State gubernatorial election?
Will Mohammed Umaru Bago win the 2027 Niger State gubernatorial election?
Will Iran target Qatar by August 31, 2026?
Will Iran target Qatar by August 31, 2026?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by August 31, 2026?
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by August 31, 2026?
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?
Will Iran target the United Arab Emirates by August 31, 2026?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 30, 2026?
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 30, 2026?
Will Solomon Olamilekan Adeola win the 2027 Ogun State gubernatorial election?
Will Solomon Olamilekan Adeola win the 2027 Ogun State gubernatorial election?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
Will James Ene Nwannaji win the 2027 Enugu State gubernatorial election?
Will James Ene Nwannaji win the 2027 Enugu State gubernatorial election?
Will Dauda Lawal win the 2027 Zamfara State gubernatorial election?
Will Dauda Lawal win the 2027 Zamfara State gubernatorial election?
Will Obafemi Hamzat win the 2027 Lagos State gubernatorial election?
Will Obafemi Hamzat win the 2027 Lagos State gubernatorial election?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Will Mustapha Gubio win the 2027 Borno State gubernatorial election?
Will Mustapha Gubio win the 2027 Borno State gubernatorial election?
Will the All Progressives Congress (APC) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election?
Will the All Progressives Congress (APC) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election?
Will the African Democratic Congress (ADC) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election?
Will the African Democratic Congress (ADC) win the most seats in the 2027 Nigerian House of Representatives election?
Will Michael Bush win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election?
Will Michael Bush win the 2027 Akwa Ibom State gubernatorial election?
Will Abubakar Malami win the 2027 Kebbi State gubernatorial election?
Will Abubakar Malami win the 2027 Kebbi State gubernatorial election?
Will Nasir Idris win the 2027 Kebbi State gubernatorial election?
Will Nasir Idris win the 2027 Kebbi State gubernatorial election?
Will Arthur Jarvis win the 2027 Cross River State gubernatorial election?
Will Arthur Jarvis win the 2027 Cross River State gubernatorial election?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in September?
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in September?
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?
Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
Will Iran target Iraq by September 15, 2026?
Will Iran target Iraq by September 15, 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026?
Houthis successfully target shipping by September 15, 2026?
Will Iran target Iraq by August 31, 2026?
Will Iran target Iraq by August 31, 2026?
Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?
Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Will there be 40 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?
Will there be 40 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?
Will there be between 35 and 39 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?
Will there be between 35 and 39 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?