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paddaa

View on Polymarket

Tier

Good

Over the last 30 days, paddaa closed 148 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +18% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, paddaa shows a real edge over the average tracked trader, though a more moderate one and currently sits at rank #74 on Sirtio's leaderboard.

Rank

#74

Sirtio score

72.0

Avg edge (per position)

+18%

Positions (30d)

148

Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 148 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 42% of paddaa's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.

Sirtio Score Breakdown

See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.

Raw avg return

+18%

across 148 positions

→Shrunk toward the pool average, weighted by sample size

Z-score

+2.96

distance from average, adjusted for confidence

→Converted to a 0-100 scale

Sirtio score

72.0

The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.

The best single trade in this window was +$6,363 on "Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?" (a 71% return). The worst was a -$1,743 loss on "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?".

Top 5 Wins (Last 30 Days)

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?

Yes

+$6,36371%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Yes

+$4,02210%

Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?

No

+$3,73440%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?

Yes

+$3,124127%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?

No

+$2,66132%

Top 5 Losses (Last 30 Days)

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

No

-$1,743-8%

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?

Yes

-$1,001-57%

Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?

Yes

-$469-74%

Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

Yes

-$398-6%

Will Giovanna Simpson win the next Burnie mayoral election?

No

-$371-100%

All Positions (Since Tracked Oct 18, 2026)

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes45c entry
-$17-0%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes49c entry
-$160-4%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes85c entry
+$11810%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes86c entry
+$1783%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes48c entry
+$3744%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes53c entry
+$1,1455%

Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes45c entry
+$1,87016%

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes23c entry
+$26814%

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes11c entry
+$17940%

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes33c entry
+$9328%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes91c entry
+$1899%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes79c entry
+$1026%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes42c entry
+$24910%

Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldNo86c entry
+$601%

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes72c entry
+$1131%

Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldNo77c entry
+$131%

Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldNo46c entry
+$3,73440%

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes32c entry
+$4174%

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes27c entry
+$5429%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes60c entry
+$4,02210%

Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldNo78c entry
+$1024%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldNo88c entry
+$24110%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldNo34c entry
+$82019%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes58c entry
-$104-1%

Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldNo78c entry
-$211-5%

Courts block Trump's $100,000 Truth Social early access plan by December 31?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldNo67c entry
+$5525%

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldNo71c entry
-$1,743-8%

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldNo76c entry
+$30413%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes92c entry
+$1668%

Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldNo76c entry
+$5319%

Will Shas be in the next Israeli government?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldNo63c entry
+$88520%

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes40c entry
+$1,74364%

Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldNo88c entry
+$596%

Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026MergedYes51c entry
-$0-1%

Will Nicki Minaj be the next White House Press Secretary?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes4c entry
+$151%

Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldNo63c entry
+$355%

Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026RedeemedYes45c entry
+$97189%

Will Together be in the next Israeli government?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldNo57c entry
+$1328%

Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026RedeemedYes41c entry
-$199-3%

Will 1win launch a token by October 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes93c entry
+$2155%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes66c entry
+$2867%

Next Israeli government formed by June 30, 2027?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldNo37c entry
+$255%

Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 2027?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldNo53c entry
+$14919%

Will RZP-Zehut be in the next Israeli government?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldNo68c entry
+$10316%

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldNo65c entry
+$6976%

Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes24c entry
-$71-10%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldNo50c entry
+$1992%

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldNo82c entry
+$681%

Will Delcy Rodríguez win the next Venezuelan presidential election?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedNo80c entry
+$15825%

Will María Corina Machado win the next Venezuelan presidential election?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedNo45c entry
+$360124%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026SoldNo23c entry
+$34616%

Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedYes44c entry
+$62922%

Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026SoldNo61c entry
+$1005%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$32%

Next Israeli government a minority government?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026SoldNo70c entry
+$14111%

Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026SoldNo65c entry
+$687%

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026SoldYes22c entry
+$12019%

Will Giovanna Simpson win the next Burnie mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026RedeemedNo68c entry
-$371-100%

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldNo80c entry
+$3532%

Will United Torah Judaism be in the next Israeli government?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldNo70c entry
+$49014%

Will Otzma Yehudit be in the next Israeli government?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldNo70c entry
+$199%

Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldNo86c entry
+$261%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldNo61c entry
-$37-3%

Will Edmundo González win the next Venezuelan presidential election?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026MergedNo82c entry
+$13922%

Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldNo71c entry
+$3518%

Will Yisrael Beiteinu be in the next Israeli government?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldYes40c entry
+$40245%

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldYes36c entry
+$15713%

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldYes55c entry
+$3579%

Will Edwin Gonzalo Vásquez Sánchez win the next Chiclayo mayoral elections?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldNo64c entry
+$5755%

Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldYes25c entry
+$39116%

Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldNo65c entry
+$5736%

Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldNo87c entry
+$00%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldYes27c entry
+$14534%

Will Katie Zacharia give another press briefing as Press Secretary?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026SoldNo11c entry
+$1,229814%

Will Yashar be in the next Israeli government?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026SoldNo54c entry
+$2012%

Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026SoldNo3c entry
+$347%

Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026SoldYes3c entry
-$5-30%

Iran full airspace closure by December 31?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026SoldYes47c entry
+$3808%

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026SoldYes55c entry
-$37-2%

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026SoldYes46c entry
+$514%

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026SoldYes45c entry
+$1203%

Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026SoldNo66c entry
+$7621%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026SoldYes40c entry
+$324%

Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026SoldYes22c entry
-$46-23%

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026SoldYes32c entry
+$1,38558%

Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026SoldYes65c entry
+$231%

Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026SoldNo16c entry
+$69674%

Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldNo72c entry
+$41%

Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldYes14c entry
-$469-74%

Will Gaguim win the second-most votes in the 2026 Tocantins Senate election?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026Force-closedYes29c entry
-$58-100%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedNo79c entry
+$35027%

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldYes7c entry
-$3-9%

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldYes25c entry
-$29-13%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldYes69c entry
-$140-7%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldYes67c entry
+$20519%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldYes24c entry
+$23019%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldNo69c entry
+$2,66132%

Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldNo80c entry
-$34-4%

Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldYes9c entry
+$173%

NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldYes65c entry
+$57515%

Will "Earrings - Malcolm Todd" be the #1 song this week?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026Force-closedNo12c entry
-$62-100%

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldNo84c entry
+$1145%

Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldNo65c entry
+$1826%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldYes74c entry
+$4419%

Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldYes40c entry
-$398-6%

Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldYes46c entry
+$1486%

NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldYes65c entry
+$20511%

Will Craig Hodge win the 2026 Coquitlam mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026Force-closedYes55c entry
+$19483%

US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldYes44c entry
+$642%

Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026SoldNo75c entry
-$53-1%

Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026SoldYes24c entry
-$14-1%

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026SoldYes34c entry
+$2,46028%

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026SoldNo40c entry
+$36834%

Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026SoldYes49c entry
-$1,001-57%

Will David West win the 2026 Richmond Hill mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 22, 2026SoldYes88c entry
+$69%

Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 22, 2026SoldYes63c entry
+$3816%

Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldYes9c entry
+$9314%

US x Yemen ceasefire continues through November 30?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldNo31c entry
-$116-13%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldYes79c entry
+$2411%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldYes87c entry
-$68-4%

Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026MergedNo85c entry
+$1,27617%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldYes12c entry
+$3,124127%

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldYes78c entry
+$263%

Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldYes77c entry
+$674%

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldNo77c entry
+$54914%

Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026SoldNo30c entry
+$205165%

Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 19, 2026SoldNo81c entry
+$1517%

Will there be no Hormuz agreement?

Resolved Oct 19, 2026SoldNo4c entry
+$378181%

Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Resolved Oct 18, 2026SoldYes50c entry
+$11621%

Will Nicole Malliotakis be the next US Ambassador to Greece?

Resolved Oct 18, 2026SoldNo82c entry
+$6013%

Will Gus Bilirakis be the next US Ambassador to Greece?

Resolved Oct 18, 2026SoldNo82c entry
+$6811%

US imports Russian diesel by October 31?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026SoldNo56c entry
+$98249%

Will Erwin Wiens win the 2026 Niagara-on-the-Lake mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026SoldYes46c entry
+$3522%

Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026SoldNo77c entry
+$1629%

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 19?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldYes95c entry
+$3525%

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldYes56c entry
+$6,36371%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Republicans win the US Senate?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026MergedNo87c entry
+$16214%

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldYes39c entry
-$0-0%

Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldNo74c entry
-$361-5%

Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026MergedYes44c entry
+$328%

Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldYes26c entry
+$2315%

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldNo85c entry
+$4385%

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldNo2c entry
+$2019%

Will Simon Yu win the 2026 Prince George mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldYes39c entry
+$115%

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldYes17c entry
-$129-35%

Will Oborevwori Sheriff Francis Orohwedor win the 2027 Delta State gubernatorial election?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldYes80c entry
-$39-3%

Will North Carolina enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldNo81c entry
-$48-1%

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldYes43c entry
+$1120%

Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026SoldNo49c entry
-$1-1%

Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026MergedYes45c entry
+$80024%