Tier
Great
Over the last 30 days, Bigggggggg closed 104 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +19% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, Bigggggggg has consistently outperformed the average tracked trader and currently sits at rank #59 on Sirtio's leaderboard.
Rank
#59
Sirtio score
78.4
Avg edge (per position)
+19%
Positions (30d)
104
Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 104 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 99% of Bigggggggg's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.
See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.
Raw avg return
+19%
across 104 positions
Z-score
+4.02
distance from average, adjusted for confidence
Sirtio score
78.4
The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.
The best single trade in this window was +$1,019 on "Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?" (a 240% return). The worst was a -$6 loss on "Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?".
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
No
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
No
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?
No
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?
No
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
No
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
No
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
No
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
No
Will T1 win Worlds 2026?
No
Will T1 win Worlds 2026?
No
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
No
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
No
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
No
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
No
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?
No
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?
No
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?
No
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?
No
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
Will Aleksandar Vučić win the next Serbia presidential election?
Will Aleksandar Vučić win the next Serbia presidential election?
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?
Will Ana Brnabić win the next Serbia presidential election?
Will Ana Brnabić win the next Serbia presidential election?
Will Đuro Macut win the next Serbia presidential election?
Will Đuro Macut win the next Serbia presidential election?
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?
Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
Will Naftali Bennett receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?
Will LYON win Worlds 2026?
Will LYON win Worlds 2026?
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?
Will Vladan Petrov win the next Serbia presidential election?
Will Vladan Petrov win the next Serbia presidential election?
Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?
Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?
Will Ivica Dačić win the next Serbia presidential election?
Will Ivica Dačić win the next Serbia presidential election?
Will Zdravko Ponoš win the next Serbia presidential election?
Will Zdravko Ponoš win the next Serbia presidential election?
Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?
Will Radomir Saičić win the next Serbia presidential election?
Will Radomir Saičić win the next Serbia presidential election?
Will Dejan Šoškić win the next Serbia presidential election?
Will Dejan Šoškić win the next Serbia presidential election?
Will AfD win at least 45% of all valid second votes?
Will AfD win at least 45% of all valid second votes?
Will Ousmane Dembélé finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Ousmane Dembélé finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Michael Olise finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Michael Olise finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Lamine Yamal finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Lamine Yamal finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Lamine Yamal finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Lamine Yamal finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Erling Haaland finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Erling Haaland finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Erling Haaland finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Erling Haaland finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Fabian Ruiz finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Fabian Ruiz finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Rodri finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Rodri finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Lamine Yamal finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Lamine Yamal finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Harry Kane finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Harry Kane finish 4th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Shas win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Will Shas win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?
Will Legacy Win the PGL Masters Bucharest 2026?
Will Legacy Win the PGL Masters Bucharest 2026?
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?
Will MOUZ Win the PGL Masters Bucharest 2026?
Will MOUZ Win the PGL Masters Bucharest 2026?
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?
Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Will The MongolZ Win the PGL Masters Bucharest 2026?
Will The MongolZ Win the PGL Masters Bucharest 2026?
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
Will Ivica Dačić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Will Ivica Dačić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 30%-40%?
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 30%-40%?
Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?
Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?
Will Ana Brnabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Will Ana Brnabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Karmine Corp win Worlds 2026?
Will Karmine Corp win Worlds 2026?
Will Anyone's Legend win Worlds 2026?
Will Anyone's Legend win Worlds 2026?
Will Invictus Gaming win Worlds 2026?
Will Invictus Gaming win Worlds 2026?
Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?
Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?
Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
Will T1 win Worlds 2026?
Will T1 win Worlds 2026?
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?
Will G2 Esports win Worlds 2026?
Will G2 Esports win Worlds 2026?
Will Movistar KOI win Worlds 2026?
Will Movistar KOI win Worlds 2026?
Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Kylian Mbappé finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Hanwha Life Esports win Worlds 2026?
Will Hanwha Life Esports win Worlds 2026?
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
Will Kylian Mbappé finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Kylian Mbappé finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 23, 2026?
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 23, 2026?
Will Harry Kane finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Harry Kane finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 26, 2026?
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 26, 2026?
Will Fabian Ruiz finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Fabian Ruiz finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Pau Cubarsi finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Pau Cubarsi finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 31, 2026?
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 31, 2026?
Will Rodri finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Rodri finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 28, 2026?
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 28, 2026?
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 24, 2026?
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 24, 2026?
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?
Will Lionel Messi finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Lionel Messi finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?
Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 120 and 140 million views on week 1?
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 120 and 140 million views on week 1?
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 30, 2026?
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 30, 2026?
Will there be no Meta Watermelon model release by October 31, 2026?
Will there be no Meta Watermelon model release by October 31, 2026?
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 29, 2026?
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 29, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?
Will Stefan Krkobabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Will Stefan Krkobabić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 26, 2026?
Will Meta's Watermelon model be released on October 26, 2026?
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?