Tier
Good
Over the last 30 days, 0x42477970683d4d0a52ec7082fee5d760cc5591c4 closed 106 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +14% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, 0x42477970683d4d0a52ec7082fee5d760cc5591c4 shows a real edge over the average tracked trader, though a more moderate one and currently sits at rank #93 on Sirtio's leaderboard.
Rank
#93
Sirtio score
65.3
Avg edge (per position)
+14%
Positions (30d)
106
Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 106 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 90% of 0x42477970683d4d0a52ec7082fee5d760cc5591c4's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.
See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.
Raw avg return
+14%
across 106 positions
Z-score
+2.14
distance from average, adjusted for confidence
Sirtio score
65.3
The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.
The best single trade in this window was +$25,419 on "Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" (a 236% return). The worst was a -$2,561 loss on "Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?". That single trade alone accounts for more than half of this trader's total realized gains in the window, worth keeping in mind when weighing consistency.
This trader isn't in Sirtio's top 100 by score and has no followers, so we've paused fetching new position data for them -- the numbers above reflect their last tracked activity, not necessarily their current trading. Follow this trader (see the button near their name above) to resume tracking their live positions.