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xabidaking

View on Polymarket

Tier

Great

Over the last 30 days, xabidaking closed 41 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +72% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, xabidaking has consistently outperformed the average tracked trader and currently sits at rank #61 on Sirtio's leaderboard.

Rank

#61

Sirtio score

77.5

Avg edge (per position)

+72%

Positions (30d)

41

Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 41 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 88% of xabidaking's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.

Sirtio Score Breakdown

See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.

Raw avg return

+72%

across 41 positions

→Shrunk toward the pool average, weighted by sample size

Z-score

+3.87

distance from average, adjusted for confidence

→Converted to a 0-100 scale

Sirtio score

77.5

The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.

The best single trade in this window was +$12,788 on "Olbia: Jan Kumstat vs Edas Butvilas" (a 110% return). The worst was a -$14,197 loss on "Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-15?".

Top 5 Wins (Last 30 Days)

Olbia: Jan Kumstat vs Edas Butvilas

Jan Kumstat

+$12,788110%

Catania: Sean Cuenin vs Izan Almazan Valiente

Izan Almazan Valiente

+$11,698161%

Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?

Yes

+$11,50696%

Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-17?

Yes

+$10,736138%

Shanghai Rolex Masters: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Rafael Jodar

Rafael Jodar

+$9,31556%

Top 5 Losses (Last 30 Days)

Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-15?

Yes

-$14,197-74%

Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-17?

Yes

-$7,928-82%

Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. OFI end in a draw?

Yes

-$4,691-100%

Olbia: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Damir Dzumhur

Dimitar Kuzmanov

-$2,485-100%

Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5)

Tottenham Hotspur FC

-$1,341-46%

All Positions (Since Tracked Oct 12, 2026)

Hagen: Tom Gentzsch vs Zsombor Piros

Resolved Oct 28, 2026Force-closedZsombor Piros36c entry
-$173-100%

Sioux Falls: Dylan Dietrich vs Colton Smith

Resolved Oct 27, 2026RedeemedDylan Dietrich65c entry
+$2,11654%

Croatia Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Roman Andres Burruchaga

Resolved Oct 27, 2026Force-closedFlavio Cobolli35c entry
-$2-100%

Erste Bank Open: Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldLuciano Darderi46c entry
+$2,298117%

Brest: Lucas Poullain vs Matisse Bobichon

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldMatisse Bobichon44c entry
+$3,496129%

Erste Bank Open: Tomas Machac vs Alex de Minaur

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldAlex de Minaur9c entry
+$959555%

Cali: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Gonzalo Bueno

Resolved Oct 22, 2026SoldSantiago Rodriguez Taverna35c entry
+$47057%

Will FC Bayern München vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldYes21c entry
+$449376%

Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldYes53c entry
-$1,148-79%

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-21?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldYes27c entry
-$721-85%

European Open: Alexander Blockx vs Jan-Lennard Struff

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldJan-Lennard Struff51c entry
-$48-2%

Cali: Facundo Mena vs Valerio Aboian

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldValerio Aboian38c entry
+$1,565161%

Lyon Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Cameron Norrie

Resolved Oct 20, 2026SoldCameron Norrie25c entry
+$2,21393%

Lyon Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Titouan Droguet

Resolved Oct 20, 2026SoldDaniel Altmaier24c entry
+$7,401313%

Lyon Open: Ugo Humbert vs Corentin Moutet

Resolved Oct 20, 2026SoldCorentin Moutet39c entry
+$727158%

Fort Worth: Michael Antonius vs Albert Pedrico Kravtsov

Resolved Oct 19, 2026SoldAlbert Pedrico Kravtsov34c entry
+$2,836194%

Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5)

Resolved Oct 19, 2026SoldTottenham Hotspur FC39c entry
-$1,341-46%

Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-17?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026SoldYes40c entry
-$7,928-82%

Will Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026SoldYes26c entry
-$156-8%

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-10-17?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026SoldYes32c entry
-$59-41%

Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-17?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026SoldYes42c entry
+$10,736138%

Santa Cruz 2: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Franco Roncadelli

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldJuan Manuel La Serna98c entry
+$02%

Santa Cruz 2: Francisco Comesana vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldFrancisco Comesana57c entry
+$4,39275%

Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. OFI end in a draw?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026RedeemedYes35c entry
-$4,691-100%

Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-15?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldYes44c entry
-$14,197-74%

Olbia: Dimitar Kuzmanov vs Damir Dzumhur

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldDimitar Kuzmanov34c entry
-$2,485-100%

Olbia: Tom Gentzsch vs Georgii Kravchenko

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldTom Gentzsch52c entry
+$5,37692%

Jinan: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Dane Sweeny

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldShintaro Mochizuki57c entry
+$3,31075%

Szczecin: Marco Cecchinato vs Marvin Moeller

Resolved Oct 15, 2026Force-closedMarvin Moeller44c entry
-$0-101%

Santa Cruz 2: Francisco Comesana vs Felipe Meligeni Alves

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldFrancisco Comesana66c entry
+$1,41051%

Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-10-14?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldYes51c entry
+$11,50696%

Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-14?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldYes68c entry
+$8,68447%

Roanne: Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg vs Clement Tabur

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldSascha Gueymard-Wayenburg57c entry
+$8,04275%

Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldLukas Neumayer67c entry
+$3,72847%

Shanghai Rolex Masters: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Rafael Jodar

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldRafael Jodar64c entry
+$9,31556%

Maia: Marco Trungelliti vs Thiago Monteiro

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldMarco Trungelliti58c entry
+$2,35871%

Olbia: Jan Kumstat vs Edas Butvilas

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldJan Kumstat48c entry
+$12,788110%

Shanghai Rolex Masters: Hubert Hurkacz vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldAlejandro Davidovich Fokina32c entry
+$2,51143%

Roanne: Jakub Paul vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer AND Maia: Max Alcala Gurri vs Alejo Sanchez Quilez AND Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Alexander Bublik

Resolved Oct 13, 2026Sold24c entry
-$939-100%

Roanne: Gauthier Onclin vs Felix Balshaw

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldFelix Balshaw58c entry
+$7,04872%

Roanne: Hugo Grenier vs Benjamin Bonzi

Resolved Oct 12, 2026SoldBenjamin Bonzi59c entry
+$1,35569%

Catania: Sean Cuenin vs Izan Almazan Valiente

Resolved Oct 12, 2026SoldIzan Almazan Valiente38c entry
+$11,698161%