Leaderboard rank
#27
Over the last 90 days, us391 closed 12 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +22% per position. Based on Sirtio's Bayesian-shrunk skill model, us391 shows a real, if more moderate, edge over the average tracked trader and currently ranks #27 on Sirtio's leaderboard.
Avg edge (per position)
+22%
Positions (90d)
12
71.3
See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.
This trader's average return across 12 resolved positions was +22%. Sirtio Score doesn't use that raw number directly -- it's first blended toward the average trader's return, proportional to how little or much track record exists for this wallet, then measured against how uncertain that blended estimate still is. A thin sample or an inconsistent track record both widen that uncertainty and pull the score toward 50 (breakeven); a large, consistent sample lets the score move further from it in either direction.
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-08-14?
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
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Resolved Jul 30, 2026