Tier
Great
Over the last 90 days, 0x3dfb15...eeabaf closed 17 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +82% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, 0x3dfb15...eeabaf has consistently outperformed the average tracked trader and currently sits at rank #29 on Sirtio's leaderboard.
Rank
#29
Sirtio score
87.9
Avg edge (per position)
+82%
Positions (90d)
17
Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 17 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 95% of 0x3dfb15...eeabaf's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.
See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.
Raw avg return
+82%
across 17 positions
Z-score
+9.16
distance from average, adjusted for confidence
Sirtio score
87.9
The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.
The best single trade in this window was +$59,767 on "Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5" (a 96% return). The worst was a -$999 loss on "Spread: LSU (-2.5)".
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
Under
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
Under
NC State vs. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt
NC State vs. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
Milwaukee Brewers
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
Milwaukee Brewers
Hawai'i vs. Wyoming
Wyoming
Hawai'i vs. Wyoming
Wyoming
Chiefs vs. Dolphins: O/U 45.5
Under
Chiefs vs. Dolphins: O/U 45.5
Under
Spread: LSU (-2.5)
LSU
Spread: LSU (-2.5)
LSU
Spread: LSU (-3.5)
LSU
Spread: LSU (-3.5)
LSU
Spread: Ravens (-2.5)
Spread: Ravens (-2.5)
Cardinals vs. 49ers: O/U 47.5
Cardinals vs. 49ers: O/U 47.5
Ravens vs. Cowboys: O/U 53.5
Ravens vs. Cowboys: O/U 53.5
Spread: Texans (-1.5)
Spread: Texans (-1.5)
Spread: Jaguars (-2.5)
Spread: Jaguars (-2.5)
Spread: Panthers (-2.5)
Spread: Panthers (-2.5)
Texans vs. Colts
Texans vs. Colts
Spread: Lions (-7.5)
Spread: Lions (-7.5)
Chiefs vs. Dolphins: O/U 45.5
Chiefs vs. Dolphins: O/U 45.5
Hawai'i vs. Wyoming
Hawai'i vs. Wyoming
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers
Spread: LSU (-3.5)
Spread: LSU (-3.5)
Spread: LSU (-2.5)
Spread: LSU (-2.5)
NC State vs. Vanderbilt
NC State vs. Vanderbilt
Sunderland AFC vs. AZ: O/U 2.5
Sunderland AFC vs. AZ: O/U 2.5
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)