Tier
Good
Over the last 90 days, Thalantyr closed 12 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +62% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, Thalantyr shows a real edge over the average tracked trader, though a more moderate one and currently sits at rank #77 on Sirtio's leaderboard.
Rank
#77
Sirtio score
62.9
Avg edge (per position)
+62%
Positions (90d)
12
See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.
Raw avg return
+62%
across 12 positions
Z-score
+1.97
distance from average, adjusted for confidence
Sirtio score
62.9
The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.
The best single trade in this window was +$2,377 on "Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" (a 77% return). The worst was a -$2,301 loss on "Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?".
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Yes
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Argentina?
Yes
Boxing: Anthony Joshua vs. Kristian Prenga
Prenga
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
No
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Yes
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
Yes
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
No
Will Brighton win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
Resolved Aug 20, 2026
Will Tottenham win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
Resolved Aug 18, 2026
Boxing: Anthony Joshua vs. Kristian Prenga
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
Resolved Aug 13, 2026
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
Resolved Aug 12, 2026
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Argentina?
Resolved Jul 15, 2026
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Resolved Jul 14, 2026
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Resolved Jul 13, 2026
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
Resolved Jul 12, 2026
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Resolved Jul 5, 2026