Leaderboard rank
#34
Over the last 90 days, flawfence closed 22 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +15% per position. Based on Sirtio's Bayesian-shrunk skill model, flawfence shows a real, if more moderate, edge over the average tracked trader and currently ranks #34 on Sirtio's leaderboard.
Avg edge (per position)
+15%
Positions (90d)
22
63.9
See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.
This trader's average return across 22 resolved positions was +15%. Sirtio Score doesn't use that raw number directly -- it's first blended toward the average trader's return, proportional to how little or much track record exists for this wallet, then measured against how uncertain that blended estimate still is. A thin sample or an inconsistent track record both widen that uncertainty and pull the score toward 50 (breakeven); a large, consistent sample lets the score move further from it in either direction.
Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Resolved Aug 12, 2026
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
Resolved Aug 12, 2026
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Will Ralph Norman win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?
Resolved Aug 10, 2026
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by less than 4%?
Resolved Aug 3, 2026
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
Resolved Aug 3, 2026
Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Resolved Aug 1, 2026
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Resolved Aug 1, 2026
Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
Resolved Jul 31, 2026
Will Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
Resolved Jul 31, 2026
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
Resolved Jul 29, 2026
Will Cori Bush be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?
Resolved Jul 29, 2026
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Resolved Jul 28, 2026
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Resolved Jul 20, 2026
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
Resolved Jul 20, 2026
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
Resolved Jul 20, 2026
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
Resolved Jul 17, 2026