Tier
Good
Over the last 90 days, BeanC0unter closed 59 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +60% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, BeanC0unter shows a real edge over the average tracked trader, though a more moderate one and currently sits at rank #60 on Sirtio's leaderboard.
Rank
#60
Sirtio score
71.1
Avg edge (per position)
+60%
Positions (90d)
59
See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.
Raw avg return
+60%
across 59 positions
Z-score
+3.54
distance from average, adjusted for confidence
Sirtio score
71.1
The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.
The best single trade in this window was +$32,046 on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?" (a 599% return). The worst was a -$2,439 loss on "Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?".
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Yes
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Yes
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
No
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Yes
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Yes
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
No
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Yes
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Yes
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Yes
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Yes
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Resolved Aug 25, 2026
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Resolved Aug 25, 2026
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Phantom Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D
Resolved Aug 24, 2026
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Playoffs
Resolved Aug 21, 2026
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Resolved Aug 21, 2026
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?
Resolved Aug 20, 2026
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?
Resolved Aug 19, 2026
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Resolved Aug 15, 2026
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 12, 2026?
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
Will Darline Graham Nordone win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
Resolved Aug 12, 2026
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
Resolved Aug 12, 2026
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
Resolved Aug 12, 2026
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?
Resolved Aug 10, 2026
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Resolved Aug 4, 2026
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Resolved Aug 2, 2026
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Resolved Jul 30, 2026
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
Resolved Jul 28, 2026
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
Resolved Jul 26, 2026
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?
Resolved Jul 24, 2026
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Resolved Jul 15, 2026
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Resolved Jul 15, 2026
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Resolved Jul 14, 2026
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Resolved Jul 14, 2026
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Resolved Jul 12, 2026
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Resolved Jul 11, 2026
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?
Resolved Jul 10, 2026
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Resolved Jul 10, 2026
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Resolved Jul 7, 2026
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Resolved Jul 6, 2026
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Resolved Jul 6, 2026
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?
Resolved Jul 1, 2026
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?
Resolved Jun 30, 2026
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?
Resolved Jun 29, 2026
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Resolved Jun 25, 2026
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
Resolved Jun 25, 2026
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?
Resolved Jun 24, 2026
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12?
Resolved Jun 23, 2026
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Resolved Jun 21, 2026
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Resolved Jun 18, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Resolved Jun 15, 2026
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Resolved Jun 14, 2026
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?
Resolved Jun 12, 2026
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Resolved Jun 11, 2026
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Resolved Jun 9, 2026
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Resolved Jun 9, 2026
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
Resolved Jun 7, 2026
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Resolved Jun 3, 2026
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election
Resolved Jun 3, 2026
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election?
Resolved Jun 3, 2026
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?
Resolved Jun 3, 2026
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Resolved Jun 2, 2026
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Resolved Jun 1, 2026
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Resolved May 29, 2026