Leaderboard rank
#24
Over the last 90 days, rainbowlilies closed 51 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +47% per position. Based on Sirtio's Bayesian-shrunk skill model, rainbowlilies shows a real, if more moderate, edge over the average tracked trader and currently ranks #24 on Sirtio's leaderboard.
Avg edge (per position)
+47%
Positions (90d)
51
74.9
See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.
This trader's average return across 51 resolved positions was +47%. Sirtio Score doesn't use that raw number directly -- it's first blended toward the average trader's return, proportional to how little or much track record exists for this wallet, then measured against how uncertain that blended estimate still is. A thin sample or an inconsistent track record both widen that uncertainty and pull the score toward 50 (breakeven); a large, consistent sample lets the score move further from it in either direction.
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