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BirobidjanTrader

View on Polymarket

Tier

Great

Over the last 30 days, BirobidjanTrader closed 70 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +41% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, BirobidjanTrader has consistently outperformed the average tracked trader and currently sits at rank #44 on Sirtio's leaderboard.

Rank

#44

Sirtio score

84.4

Avg edge (per position)

+41%

Positions (30d)

70

Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 70 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 91% of BirobidjanTrader's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.

Sirtio Score Breakdown

See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.

Raw avg return

+41%

across 70 positions

→Shrunk toward the pool average, weighted by sample size

Z-score

+5.28

distance from average, adjusted for confidence

→Converted to a 0-100 scale

Sirtio score

84.4

The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.

The best single trade in this window was +$821 on "Will Steven Snell win the 2026 Williamson County Judge election?" (a 111% return). The worst was a -$112 loss on "Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?".

Top 5 Wins (Last 30 Days)

Will Steven Snell win the 2026 Williamson County Judge election?

No

+$821111%

Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $524,000 and $530,000 on September 30?

Yes

+$671196%

Will Keanin Loomis win the 2026 Hamilton, Ontario mayoral election?

Yes

+$64993%

Will Moonshot AI be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

No

+$41825%

Will Giovanna Simpson win the next Burnie mayoral election?

Yes

+$399439%

Top 5 Losses (Last 30 Days)

Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?

No

-$112-59%

Will Waymo launch in Denver, CO by December 31 2026?

No

-$11-14%

Will Moe Comuzzi win the 2026 Thunder Bay mayoral election?

No

-$1-0%

All Positions (Since Tracked Oct 12, 2026)

Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026RedeemedNo32c entry
+$120211%

Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 3.2% and 4.0%?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldNo84c entry
+$717%

FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldNo93c entry
+$195%

Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be at least 4.0%?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026SoldNo89c entry
+$912%

Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between -0.8% and 0.0%?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026SoldYes12c entry
+$881%

Will Giovanna Simpson win the next Burnie mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026RedeemedYes19c entry
+$399439%

Will Mewgenics win Best Independent Game at the 2026 Game Awards?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldNo76c entry
+$6615%

Will Don Woodstock win the 2026 Winnipeg mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026RedeemedNo95c entry
+$485%

Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026SoldYes71c entry
+$10817%

Will the Republicans win Kent County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026SoldNo57c entry
+$7954%

Will Sharafadeen Abiodun Alli win the 2027 Oyo State gubernatorial election?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026SoldYes26c entry
+$753%

Will Garry Carpenter win the next Central Coast mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026RedeemedNo89c entry
+$10012%

Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.0%?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026SoldNo57c entry
+$4825%

Will South Korea’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9%?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026SoldYes20c entry
+$155110%

Will Brendan Blomeley win the next Clarence mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026SoldYes53c entry
+$5380%

Will Ahmed Galadima win the 2027 Adamawa State gubernatorial election?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026SoldYes50c entry
+$124%

Will Keanin Loomis win the 2026 Hamilton, Ontario mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026RedeemedYes50c entry
+$64993%

Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldYes52c entry
+$11327%

Will Tony Mulder win the next Clarence mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldNo73c entry
+$96%

Will Ben Dudman win the next Meander Valley mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldYes27c entry
+$3327%

Will Moe Comuzzi win the 2026 Thunder Bay mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldNo69c entry
-$1-0%

Will Phil Owen win the next Brighton mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldNo86c entry
+$415%

Will Leigh Gray win the next Brighton mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldYes72c entry
+$931%

Will Dillon Roberts win the next Waratah–Wynyard mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldYes20c entry
+$819%

Will Martin Ritsma win the 2026 Stratford mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldNo36c entry
+$4163%

Will Sunday Garba Biggs win the 2027 Plateau State gubernatorial election?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldNo91c entry
+$210%

Will Ján Nosko win the 2026 Banská Bystrica mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026RedeemedYes56c entry
+$15678%

Will Xolani Vela be the next mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldNo88c entry
+$1211%

Will Letitia Plummer win the 2026 Harris County Judge election?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldYes82c entry
+$411%

Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $524,000 and $530,000 on September 30?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026Force-closedYes34c entry
+$671196%

Will Anton Danko win the 2026 Poprad mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldYes50c entry
+$36274%

Will Mkhuleko Hlengwa be the next mayor of eThekwini?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldYes13c entry
+$4347%

Will Eurozone annual GDP growth in 2026 be between 1.0% and 2.0%?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026SoldYes26c entry
+$13373%

US Treasury announces Bitcoin purchase by December 31, 2027?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026SoldNo48c entry
+$4267%

Will Daniel Wong win the 2026 Fort Bend County Judge election?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026SoldNo86c entry
+$37%

Will the Democrat win the North Carolina Supreme Court general election?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026SoldYes69c entry
+$3318%

Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?

Resolved Oct 22, 2026SoldYes60c entry
+$8056%

Will Pavel Tůma be the next Mayor of České Budějovice?

Resolved Oct 22, 2026SoldNo76c entry
+$1432%

Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 2.0% and 2.4%?

Resolved Oct 22, 2026SoldNo76c entry
+$930%

Will Ondřej Talíř be the next Mayor of České Budějovice?

Resolved Oct 22, 2026SoldNo73c entry
+$335%

Will Aleš Boháč be the next Mayor of Ostrava?

Resolved Oct 22, 2026SoldNo85c entry
+$717%

Will Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley) win Record of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?

Resolved Oct 22, 2026SoldYes17c entry
+$167%

Will Baba Wali win the 2027 Yobe State gubernatorial election?

Resolved Oct 22, 2026SoldYes78c entry
+$512%

Will world GDP growth be ≤2.9% in 2026?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldNo71c entry
+$4923%

Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldYes15c entry
+$72122%

Will Ilona Dvořáková be the next Mayor of Hradec Králové?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldNo91c entry
+$39%

Will the Democrats win Kent County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldYes57c entry
+$8950%

Will Ján Danko win the 2026 Martin mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldYes39c entry
+$532%

Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldNo65c entry
+$7038%

Will María Teresa Guerra Ochoa win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldNo93c entry
+$367%

Will Republicans win 12–13% of the Black vote?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldYes14c entry
+$413%

Will Republicans win 10–11% of the Black vote?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldNo64c entry
+$32%

Will Republicans win 8–9% of the Black vote?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldNo64c entry
+$1414%

Will Michal Uherčík win the 2026 Martin mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026SoldNo51c entry
+$1318%

Will Branislav Baroš win the 2026 Trnava mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026SoldNo53c entry
+$3136%

Will the Democrats win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026SoldYes71c entry
+$420%

Will Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?

Resolved Oct 19, 2026SoldYes7c entry
+$1223%

Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?

Resolved Oct 19, 2026SoldYes67c entry
+$12%

Will Hazeem Gbolarumi win the 2027 Oyo State gubernatorial election?

Resolved Oct 19, 2026SoldNo79c entry
+$1424%

Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?

Resolved Oct 18, 2026SoldNo53c entry
-$112-59%

Will the Democrats win Washoe County in the Nevada governor race in 2026?

Resolved Oct 18, 2026SoldYes58c entry
+$4424%

Will Abba Kabir Yusuf win the 2027 Kano State gubernatorial election?

Resolved Oct 18, 2026SoldYes55c entry
+$7225%

Will Aaron Orlando win the 2026 Revelstoke mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 18, 2026SoldNo83c entry
+$7619%

Will Tom Dyas win the 2026 Kelowna mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026SoldYes32c entry
+$203116%

Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0% and 0.1%?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026SoldNo79c entry
+$7224%

Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be negative?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026SoldNo81c entry
+$6121%

Will Caedrel Win the 2026 Esports Personality of the Year Award?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldNo80c entry
+$511%

Will Ivana Lucáková Nesétová be the next Mayor of Ostrava?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldNo83c entry
+$219%

Will Kirk LaPointe win the 2026 West Vancouver mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldNo52c entry
+$351%

Will Gary Sulz win the 2026 Revelstoke mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldYes56c entry
+$1423%

Will Otti Alex Chioma win the 2027 Abia State gubernatorial election?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldYes82c entry
+$212%

Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldYes20c entry
+$1343%

Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldNo75c entry
+$3710%

Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldYes23c entry
+$34%

Will Waymo launch in San Diego, CA by December 31 2026?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldNo11c entry
+$624%

Will Waymo launch in Denver, CO by December 31 2026?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldNo22c entry
-$11-14%

Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas, NV by December 31 2026?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldNo25c entry
+$22%

Will Chen Yu-jen win the next Kinmen County Magistrate election?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldYes83c entry
+$3215%

Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in September 2026?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldNo57c entry
+$4358%

Will Steven Snell win the 2026 Williamson County Judge election?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldNo37c entry
+$821111%

Will Moonshot AI be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldNo68c entry
+$41825%

Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 4.50%?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldYes89c entry
+$489%

Will Eric Woodward win the 2026 Langley Township mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026SoldYes42c entry
+$943%