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fildoro

View on Polymarket

Tier

Great

Over the last 30 days, fildoro closed 80 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +82% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, fildoro has consistently outperformed the average tracked trader and currently sits at rank #23 on Sirtio's leaderboard.

Rank

#23

Sirtio score

92.1

Avg edge (per position)

+82%

Positions (30d)

80

Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 80 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 93% of fildoro's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.

Sirtio Score Breakdown

See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.

Raw avg return

+82%

across 80 positions

→Shrunk toward the pool average, weighted by sample size

Z-score

+7.70

distance from average, adjusted for confidence

→Converted to a 0-100 scale

Sirtio score

92.1

The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.

The best single trade in this window was +$215 on "Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 31?" (a 300% return). The worst was a -$229 loss on "Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on September 26?".

Top 5 Wins (Last 30 Days)

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 31?

Yes

+$215300%

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on October 27?

Yes

+$215318%

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on October 29?

Yes

+$208396%

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on October 29?

Yes

+$178268%

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on November 2?

Yes

+$170216%

Top 5 Losses (Last 30 Days)

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on September 26?

Yes

-$229-100%

Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on August 9?

Yes

-$35-100%

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 10?

Yes

-$21-26%

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on September 23?

Yes

-$12-100%

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 3?

Yes

-$6-100%

All Positions (Since Tracked Oct 12, 2026)

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on November 2?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes32c entry
+$23208%

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on November 2?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026SoldYes31c entry
+$170216%

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on November 1?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026RedeemedYes21c entry
+$8376%

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on November 1?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes33c entry
+$154198%

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on November 1?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldYes38c entry
+$134164%

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on September 22?

Resolved Nov 1, 2026Force-closedYes37c entry
+$0174%

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 31?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026RedeemedYes46c entry
+$3117%

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on October 31?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes33c entry
+$121200%

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 31?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026SoldYes25c entry
+$215300%

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on October 30?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026RedeemedYes33c entry
+$3203%

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on October 30?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026SoldYes32c entry
+$139209%

Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on October 30?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026SoldYes34c entry
+$126189%

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 30?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026SoldYes16c entry
+$106525%

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 30?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026SoldYes36c entry
+$36172%

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on October 30?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026SoldYes55c entry
+$5478%

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on October 29?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldYes29c entry
+$158235%

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on October 29?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldYes27c entry
+$178268%

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on October 29?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldYes50c entry
+$5198%

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on October 29?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldYes20c entry
+$208396%

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 28?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026SoldYes47c entry
+$74110%

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 11°C on September 7?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026Force-closedNo90c entry
+$211%

Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on August 9?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026Force-closedYes30c entry
-$35-100%

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on October 27?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026SoldYes37c entry
+$104168%

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on September 26?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026Force-closedYes30c entry
-$229-100%

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on October 27?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026SoldYes43c entry
+$18130%

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on October 27?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026SoldYes24c entry
+$215318%

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on October 27?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026SoldYes33c entry
+$112197%

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 15°C on October 27?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026SoldYes32c entry
+$130209%

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on October 27?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026SoldYes43c entry
+$83130%

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 3?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026Force-closedYes32c entry
-$6-100%

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on October 26?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldYes47c entry
+$46111%

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 26?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldYes48c entry
+$44106%

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on October 26?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldYes19c entry
+$111410%

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 26?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldYes37c entry
+$42168%

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on October 26?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldYes38c entry
+$66162%

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on October 26?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldYes45c entry
+$22120%

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 26?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldYes33c entry
+$86199%

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on October 25?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldYes46c entry
+$48115%

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 25?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldYes54c entry
+$3483%

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on October 25?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldYes31c entry
+$90219%

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on October 25?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026RedeemedYes35c entry
+$3186%

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 25?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldYes54c entry
+$3383%

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on October 25?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldYes39c entry
+$62154%

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 25?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldYes46c entry
+$48116%

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 25?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldYes37c entry
+$9165%

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on October 24?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldYes42c entry
+$28137%

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on October 24?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldYes37c entry
+$29170%

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on October 24?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldYes52c entry
+$1790%

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 24?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldYes34c entry
+$38186%

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on October 24?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldYes26c entry
+$5281%

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 24?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldYes36c entry
+$35174%

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on October 24?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026SoldYes29c entry
+$47238%

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on October 23?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026SoldYes47c entry
+$22111%

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on October 23?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026SoldYes47c entry
+$22110%

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on October 23?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026SoldYes41c entry
+$28139%

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 23?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026SoldYes44c entry
+$24125%

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 23?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026SoldYes47c entry
+$21108%

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 23?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026SoldYes16c entry
+$128520%

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 1?

Resolved Oct 22, 2026Force-closedNo79c entry
+$8326%

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on October 10?

Resolved Oct 22, 2026Force-closedYes50c entry
-$21-26%

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C or higher on October 16?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldNo74c entry
+$1534%

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on October 16?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldNo75c entry
+$4531%

Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on October 16?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldNo88c entry
+$4113%

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 16?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldNo73c entry
+$2334%

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on October 16?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldNo80c entry
+$523%

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on October 16?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldNo73c entry
+$6134%

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on October 16?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldNo79c entry
+$6926%

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on October 16?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldNo76c entry
+$10530%

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 16?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldNo73c entry
+$2536%

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on October 16?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldNo83c entry
+$6519%

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on October 16?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldNo77c entry
+$5228%

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on October 16?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldNo84c entry
+$918%

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on October 15?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldNo79c entry
+$8225%

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 16?

Resolved Oct 16, 2026SoldNo81c entry
+$3422%

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on October 15?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldNo84c entry
+$3519%

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on September 7?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026Force-closedYes42c entry
+$7138%

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on October 15?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldNo74c entry
+$12334%

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on September 27?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026Force-closedYes52c entry
+$093%

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on October 15?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldNo86c entry
+$2615%

Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on October 15?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldNo78c entry
+$9127%

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 15?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldNo73c entry
+$636%

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on October 15?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldNo83c entry
+$5720%

Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 15?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldNo79c entry
+$3026%

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 15?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldNo73c entry
+$12135%

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on October 15?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldNo79c entry
+$8524%

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on October 15?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldNo83c entry
+$4820%

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 15?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldNo86c entry
+$216%

Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on October 14?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldNo78c entry
+$9727%

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on October 14?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldNo79c entry
+$625%

Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on October 14?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldNo70c entry
+$241%

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on October 14?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldNo79c entry
+$2024%

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on October 14?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldNo83c entry
+$5520%

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on October 14?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldNo86c entry
+$5516%

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on October 14?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldNo78c entry
+$7927%

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on October 14?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026SoldNo87c entry
+$5214%

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on October 14?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldNo84c entry
+$3019%

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on October 13?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldNo86c entry
+$3214%

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on October 13?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldNo78c entry
+$9829%

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on September 23?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026Force-closedYes42c entry
-$12-100%

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on October 13?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldNo89c entry
+$1610%

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on October 13?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldNo81c entry
+$7722%

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on October 13?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldNo73c entry
+$12636%

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 6°C on October 13?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldNo81c entry
+$6821%

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on October 13?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldNo84c entry
+$917%

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on October 13?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026SoldNo77c entry
+$7429%

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on October 12?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026SoldNo82c entry
+$5320%

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on October 12?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026SoldNo71c entry
+$14141%

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C or below on October 13?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026SoldNo83c entry
+$1521%

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on October 12?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026SoldNo89c entry
+$3112%

Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on October 12?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026SoldNo75c entry
+$11130%

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on October 12?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026SoldNo74c entry
+$13034%

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on October 13?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026SoldNo79c entry
+$9925%

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on October 12?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026SoldNo71c entry
+$640%