Tier
Good
Over the last 90 days, frozenriver closed 3 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +84% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, frozenriver shows a real edge over the average tracked trader, though a more moderate one and currently sits at rank #81 on Sirtio's leaderboard.
Rank
#81
Sirtio score
62.0
Avg edge (per position)
+84%
Positions (90d)
3
See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.
Raw avg return
+84%
across 3 positions
Z-score
+1.82
distance from average, adjusted for confidence
Sirtio score
62.0
The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.
The best single trade in this window was +$3,366 on "Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?" (a 1524% return). Every resolved position in this window closed in the green -- no losses to report.
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?
Yes
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?
Yes
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in August?
Yes
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?
Yes
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?
Yes
No losing positions in this window.
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Resolved Aug 24, 2026
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?
Resolved Aug 21, 2026
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?
Resolved Aug 21, 2026
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?
Resolved Aug 21, 2026
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in August?
Resolved Aug 21, 2026
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in August?
Resolved Aug 21, 2026
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August?
Resolved Aug 20, 2026
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Will Trump say "Six Seven" in August?
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Will "Anthropic" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Will "AI" be said 50+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Will "Software" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?
Resolved Aug 5, 2026