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olegio

View on Polymarket

Tier

Good

Over the last 90 days, olegio closed 101 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +56% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, olegio shows a real edge over the average tracked trader, though a more moderate one and currently sits at rank #56 on Sirtio's leaderboard.

Rank

#56

Sirtio score

73.0

Avg edge (per position)

+56%

Positions (90d)

101

Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 101 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 84% of olegio's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.

Sirtio Score Breakdown

See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.

Raw avg return

+56%

across 101 positions

→Shrunk toward the pool average, weighted by sample size

Z-score

+6.18

distance from average, adjusted for confidence

→Converted to a 0-100 scale

Sirtio score

73.0

The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.

The best single trade in this window was +$37,238 on "Spread: Argentina (-1.5)" (a 212% return). The worst was a -$31,144 loss on "UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)".

Top 5 Wins (Last 90 Days)

Spread: Argentina (-1.5)

Cabo Verde

+$37,238212%

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs 1win - Game 2 Winner

Team Liquid

+$26,369134%

UFC Fight Night: Austin Bashi vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (Featherweight, Prelims)

Jose Miguel Delgado

+$20,012127%

Canada vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5

Over

+$14,902431%

LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner

KT Rolster

+$14,084352%

Top 5 Losses (Last 90 Days)

UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)

Polyana Viana

-$31,144-100%

Spread: Canada (-1.5)

Qatar

-$19,800-100%

Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5

Under

-$8,107-100%

LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner

Invictus Gaming

-$840-7%

Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?

No

-$468-58%

All Positions (Since Tracked Sep 2, 2026)

Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldAurora31c entry
+$826%

Dota 2: Aurora vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldNatus Vincere57c entry
+$5,33566%

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldXtreme Gaming62c entry
+$9,02761%

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Sep 26, 2026SoldXtreme Gaming53c entry
+$44%

Will Norway win on 2026-09-24?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldNo37c entry
+$204%

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs 1win - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Sep 24, 2026Sold1win21c entry
-$0-12%

Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?

Resolved Sep 24, 2026Force-closedNo72c entry
+$4,90039%

Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldNatus Vincere56c entry
-$3-6%

Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Sep 24, 2026SoldXtreme Gaming66c entry
+$1,85352%

Dota 2: Team Liquid vs 1win - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Sep 22, 2026Force-closedTeam Liquid42c entry
+$26,369134%

Dota 2: Conventus Stellarum vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Sep 22, 2026SoldYakult Brothers30c entry
+$47%

Giants vs. Rams

Resolved Sep 22, 2026SoldGiants27c entry
+$1474%

Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Sep 21, 2026SoldXtreme Gaming44c entry
+$9,243125%

LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner

Resolved Sep 19, 2026SoldInvictus Gaming41c entry
-$840-7%

LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner

Resolved Sep 18, 2026SoldMovistar KOI60c entry
-$182-2%

LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 Winner

Resolved Sep 17, 2026SoldTop Esports58c entry
+$8,73272%

Will Sheffield United FC win on 2026-09-16?

Resolved Sep 16, 2026SoldNo43c entry
-$6-2%

Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-09-15?

Resolved Sep 15, 2026SoldNo41c entry
+$2025%

UFC Fight Night: Thomas Petersen vs. Valter Walker (Heavyweight, Prelims)

Resolved Sep 14, 2026Force-closedThomas Petersen36c entry
-$4-100%

LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Disguised - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Sep 14, 2026Force-closedDisguised39c entry
-$252-3%

Spread: Canada (-1.5)

Resolved Sep 13, 2026Force-closedQatar44c entry
-$19,800-100%

US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen

Resolved Sep 13, 2026Force-closedFrances Tiafoe50c entry
+$5,18598%

Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 3.5

Resolved Sep 9, 2026Force-closedOver33c entry
-$2-100%

Prague: Andrej Martin vs Javier Barranco Cosano

Resolved Sep 8, 2026Force-closedJavier Barranco Cosano71c entry
+$3541%

US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe

Resolved Sep 6, 2026SoldFrances Tiafoe52c entry
+$714%

LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

Resolved Sep 6, 2026Force-closedInvictus Gaming58c entry
+$42972%

LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Resolved Sep 6, 2026Force-closedTeam WE26c entry
+$2,408285%

LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Sep 6, 2026Force-closedDplus KIA57c entry
+$1,99173%

LoL: AG.AL vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group A

Resolved Sep 6, 2026Force-closedAG.AL50c entry
+$5,25298%

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Sep 6, 2026Force-closedTeam Falcons2c entry
+$54208%

LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Sep 6, 2026Force-closedLGD Gaming34c entry
-$76-100%

US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens

Resolved Sep 6, 2026SoldElise Mertens38c entry
+$25%

US Open ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Benjamin Bonzi

Resolved Sep 5, 2026SoldKaren Khachanov66c entry
+$67851%

UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)

Resolved Sep 5, 2026Force-closedPolyana Viana36c entry
-$31,144-100%

Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5

Resolved Sep 5, 2026Force-closedUnder32c entry
-$8,107-100%

US Open WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya

Resolved Sep 5, 2026SoldAnna Kalinskaya64c entry
+$1,88156%

US Open ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Resolved Sep 4, 2026SoldStefanos Tsitsipas41c entry
+$2,233144%

Manacor: Edas Butvilas vs Luca Potenza

Resolved Sep 4, 2026SoldLuca Potenza40c entry
+$1,261150%

Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-09-04?

Resolved Sep 4, 2026SoldNo31c entry
+$1858%

US Open ATP: Valentin Vacherot vs Kamil Majchrzak

Resolved Sep 3, 2026SoldKamil Majchrzak47c entry
+$3512%

US Open ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Francesco Passaro

Resolved Sep 1, 2026SoldFrancesco Passaro37c entry
+$12%

US Open ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Corentin Moutet

Resolved Sep 1, 2026SoldDane Sweeny51c entry
+$10,35196%

US Open ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Valentin Royer

Resolved Aug 31, 2026SoldDalibor Svrcina51c entry
+$2,46794%

Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-08-22?

Resolved Aug 22, 2026SoldNo35c entry
-$22-5%

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Playoffs

Resolved Aug 21, 2026SoldTeam Yandex35c entry
+$1,981183%

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Playoffs

Resolved Aug 21, 2026SoldTeam Spirit42c entry
-$34-2%

Cincinnati Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Daniil Medvedev

Resolved Aug 18, 2026SoldBrandon Nakashima44c entry
+$1,156126%

Cincinnati Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Anna Kalinskaya

Resolved Aug 17, 2026SoldAnna Kalinskaya55c entry
-$1-5%

Cincinnati Open: Adam Walton vs Ignacio Buse

Resolved Aug 17, 2026SoldAdam Walton59c entry
+$44769%

Cincinnati Open: Anna Blinkova vs Ekaterina Alexandrova

Resolved Aug 16, 2026SoldEkaterina Alexandrova47c entry
+$576%

Will Racing Club De Lens win on 2026-08-16?

Resolved Aug 16, 2026SoldNo24c entry
-$1-5%

Cincinnati Open: Katerina Siniakova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

Resolved Aug 16, 2026SoldKaterina Siniakova40c entry
+$218%

Cincinnati Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Sofia Kenin

Resolved Aug 16, 2026SoldSofia Kenin46c entry
+$12%

LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Aug 16, 2026SoldWeibo Gaming36c entry
+$875178%

Will Manchester City win on 2026-08-16?

Resolved Aug 16, 2026SoldNo62c entry
-$1-2%

Cincinnati Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Matteo Berrettini

Resolved Aug 16, 2026SoldMatteo Berrettini37c entry
-$13-3%

Cincinnati Open: Emma Navarro vs Anhelina Kalinina

Resolved Aug 15, 2026SoldAnhelina Kalinina53c entry
-$2-2%

Cincinnati Open: Quentin Halys vs Alex de Minaur

Resolved Aug 15, 2026SoldAlex de Minaur32c entry
-$2-6%

LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Resolved Aug 15, 2026SoldAnyones Legend54c entry
+$2,45285%

Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Aug 15, 2026SoldTeam Yandex46c entry
+$2,493117%

LoL: Team WE vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Aug 14, 2026SoldTeam WE36c entry
-$21-3%

Cincinnati Open: Cameron Norrie vs Dino Prizmic

Resolved Aug 13, 2026SoldDino Prizmic38c entry
-$1-6%

Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Aoi Ito vs Harriet Dart

Resolved Aug 13, 2026SoldAoi Ito39c entry
+$23%

National Bank Open: Rafael Jodar vs Brandon Nakashima

Resolved Aug 13, 2026SoldBrandon Nakashima38c entry
+$2,177164%

ITF M25 East Lansing Men: Cooper Woestendick vs Naoki Nakagawa

Resolved Aug 12, 2026SoldNaoki Nakagawa39c entry
+$421156%

LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Aug 12, 2026SoldKT Rolster51c entry
-$6-12%

Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Akasha Urhobo

Resolved Aug 11, 2026SoldAkasha Urhobo32c entry
-$163-19%

Cincinnati Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Elizabeth Mandlik

Resolved Aug 11, 2026SoldElizabeth Mandlik46c entry
-$3-9%

Will SC Braga win on 2026-08-09?

Resolved Aug 9, 2026SoldNo37c entry
+$1045%

LoL: JD Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Aug 9, 2026SoldJD Gaming55c entry
+$815%

LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Aug 9, 2026SoldDplus KIA45c entry
+$2,141114%

LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Aug 9, 2026SoldKT Rolster59c entry
+$1,02369%

UFC Fight Night: Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo (Lightweight, Main Card)

Resolved Aug 9, 2026SoldBilly Quarantillo38c entry
+$763%

LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group

Resolved Aug 8, 2026SoldT142c entry
-$53-2%

LoL: Team Heretics vs Fnatic - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Aug 7, 2026SoldTeam Heretics32c entry
-$43-1%

LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Aug 6, 2026SoldTeam WE25c entry
+$3,299281%

LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana

Resolved Aug 6, 2026SoldInvictus Gaming51c entry
+$20882%

LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Aug 6, 2026SoldT144c entry
+$3,075127%

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Aug 5, 2026SoldTeam Liquid35c entry
+$456185%

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner

Resolved Aug 1, 2026SoldMOUZ52c entry
-$149-23%

LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Jul 29, 2026SoldLGD Gaming21c entry
+$35%

LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Jul 29, 2026SoldKT Rolster22c entry
+$14,084352%

LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage

Resolved Jul 27, 2026SoldHANJIN BRION80c entry
+$1311%

LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Jul 26, 2026SoldMovistar KOI63c entry
+$5,16659%

LoL: Top Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend

Resolved Jul 25, 2026SoldTop Esports67c entry
+$1,27149%

LoL: Karmine Corp vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner

Resolved Jul 19, 2026SoldDplus KIA52c entry
+$4,01892%

LoL: Karmine Corp vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Jul 19, 2026SoldDplus KIA50c entry
+$2,66999%

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Jul 19, 2026SoldBetBoom Team42c entry
+$12,196137%

UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card)

Resolved Jul 19, 2026SoldKamaru Usman32c entry
+$2266%

UFC Fight Night: Austin Bashi vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (Featherweight, Prelims)

Resolved Jul 19, 2026SoldJose Miguel Delgado44c entry
+$20,012127%

France vs. England: Team to Win

Resolved Jul 18, 2026SoldFrance17c entry
+$7433%

England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score

Resolved Jul 15, 2026SoldYes26c entry
+$303280%

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survival

Resolved Jul 15, 2026SoldTeam Liquid38c entry
-$319-4%

LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D

Resolved Jul 15, 2026SoldLYON42c entry
+$175%

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Jul 15, 2026SoldTeam Liquid37c entry
+$11811%

France vs. Spain: Team to Advance

Resolved Jul 14, 2026SoldSpain56c entry
+$34361%

France to score first vs. Spain?

Resolved Jul 14, 2026SoldNo49c entry
+$5,236104%

Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance

Resolved Jul 12, 2026SoldSwitzerland23c entry
-$28-17%

Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?

Resolved Jul 6, 2026SoldNo52c entry
+$62%

Paraguay vs. France: France O/U 1.5

Resolved Jul 4, 2026SoldUnder27c entry
+$21%

Canada vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5

Resolved Jul 4, 2026SoldOver19c entry
+$14,902431%

Will Canada vs. Morocco end in a draw?

Resolved Jul 4, 2026SoldNo70c entry
+$7,39843%

Spread: Argentina (-1.5)

Resolved Jul 4, 2026SoldCabo Verde32c entry
+$37,238212%

Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?

Resolved Jul 3, 2026SoldNo65c entry
-$5-1%

Will Spain win on 2026-07-02?

Resolved Jul 2, 2026SoldNo31c entry
-$468-58%