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olegio

View on Polymarket

Tier

Great

Over the last 30 days, olegio closed 40 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +97% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, olegio has consistently outperformed the average tracked trader and currently sits at rank #60 on Sirtio's leaderboard.

Rank

#60

Sirtio score

77.9

Avg edge (per position)

+97%

Positions (30d)

40

Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 40 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 88% of olegio's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.

Sirtio Score Breakdown

See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.

Raw avg return

+97%

across 40 positions

→Shrunk toward the pool average, weighted by sample size

Z-score

+3.95

distance from average, adjusted for confidence

→Converted to a 0-100 scale

Sirtio score

77.9

The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.

The best single trade in this window was +$36,711 on "Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-31?" (a 289% return). The worst was a -$27,936 loss on "UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight, Prelims)".

Top 5 Wins (Last 30 Days)

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-31?

No

+$36,711289%

Spread: Celtics (-10.5)

Nets

+$35,290150%

UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)

Alexander Volkanovski

+$26,566113%

LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage

Movistar KOI

+$21,469226%

Spread: Knicks (-1.5)

76ers

+$20,463113%

Top 5 Losses (Last 30 Days)

UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight, Prelims)

Nikolay Veretennikov

-$27,936-100%

Spread: Spurs (-6.5)

Timberwolves

-$26,137-100%

Cincinnati Open: Emma Navarro vs Anhelina Kalinina

Anhelina Kalinina

-$3,447-100%

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner

Astralis

-$1,264-100%

LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner

DN SOOPers

-$546-100%

All Positions (Since Tracked Oct 15, 2026)

Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw?

Resolved Nov 2, 2026RedeemedNo66c entry
+$5,35552%

Spread: Cavaliers (-18.5)

Resolved Nov 1, 2026SoldBucks33c entry
-$3-3%

LoL: LOS vs LYON - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Oct 31, 2026RedeemedLOS54c entry
+$4,60085%

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-31?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026RedeemedNo26c entry
+$36,711289%

Spread: Knicks (-1.5)

Resolved Oct 31, 2026Redeemed76ers47c entry
+$20,463113%

Knicks vs. 76ers

Resolved Oct 30, 2026Sold76ers40c entry
+$435%

LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage

Resolved Oct 30, 2026SoldTeam Liquid17c entry
+$16153%

LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Oct 30, 2026RedeemedTop Esports22c entry
+$227355%

Spread: Pelicans (-5.5)

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldKings47c entry
-$39-2%

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs

Resolved Oct 29, 2026RedeemedTeam Yandex47c entry
+$3,001113%

Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Playoffs

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldBetBoom Team37c entry
-$27-13%

Spread: Lakers (-13.5)

Resolved Oct 29, 2026RedeemedLakers49c entry
+$97104%

Spread: Spurs (-11.5)

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldJazz41c entry
+$10,013144%

Spread: Spurs (-16.5)

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldSpurs41c entry
+$198%

Spread: Spurs (-14.5)

Resolved Oct 29, 2026SoldSpurs47c entry
-$1-2%

Dota 2: GamerLegion vs LEGION (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs

Resolved Oct 29, 2026RedeemedGamerLegion40c entry
+$8,255150%

Spread: Raptors (-2.5)

Resolved Oct 28, 2026SoldMagic41c entry
-$17-1%

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-28?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026SoldNo37c entry
+$16,85578%

Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-28?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026SoldNo27c entry
+$14%

Spread: Celtics (-10.5)

Resolved Oct 28, 2026RedeemedNets40c entry
+$35,290150%

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LEGION (BO1) - PARI Universe Group B

Resolved Oct 27, 2026SoldBetBoom Team58c entry
+$2113%

Spread: Pacers (-2.5)

Resolved Oct 27, 2026SoldBucks44c entry
+$280127%

LoL: Team Liquid vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Oct 26, 2026SoldTeam Liquid16c entry
+$175524%

LoL: Dplus KIA vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldMovistar KOI23c entry
-$14-0%

LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage

Resolved Oct 25, 2026SoldDplus KIA13c entry
+$491674%

UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)

Resolved Oct 24, 2026RedeemedAlexander Volkanovski47c entry
+$26,566113%

LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner

Resolved Oct 24, 2026Force-closedDN SOOPers20c entry
-$546-100%

US Open ATP: Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe

Resolved Oct 24, 2026Force-closedFrances Tiafoe59c entry
+$8,74270%

Spread: Spurs (-6.5)

Resolved Oct 23, 2026Force-closedTimberwolves51c entry
-$26,137-100%

LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage

Resolved Oct 23, 2026SoldDplus KIA17c entry
+$4,478478%

LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage

Resolved Oct 23, 2026SoldMovistar KOI31c entry
+$21,469226%

Timberwolves vs. Heat

Resolved Oct 22, 2026RedeemedTimberwolves46c entry
+$15,660117%

UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight, Prelims)

Resolved Oct 22, 2026Force-closedNikolay Veretennikov48c entry
-$27,936-100%

Spread: Pacers (-5.5)

Resolved Oct 22, 2026SoldPacers41c entry
-$17-7%

Cincinnati Open: Emma Navarro vs Anhelina Kalinina

Resolved Oct 21, 2026Force-closedAnhelina Kalinina53c entry
-$3,447-100%

Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-10-20?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026SoldNo61c entry
+$17,32764%

Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 5.5

Resolved Oct 20, 2026SoldOver24c entry
+$118316%

Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner

Resolved Oct 20, 2026Force-closedAstralis33c entry
-$1,264-100%

Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-10-18?

Resolved Oct 18, 2026SoldNo10c entry
+$14130%

UFC Fight Night: Mike Malott vs. Joaquin Buckley (Welterweight, Main Card)

Resolved Oct 18, 2026SoldMike Malott54c entry
+$7,43883%

LoL: Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Worlds Play-In

Resolved Oct 15, 2026SoldCloud939c entry
-$25-13%