Tier
Great
Over the last 30 days, purplegatto closed 179 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +18% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, purplegatto has consistently outperformed the average tracked trader and currently sits at rank #58 on Sirtio's leaderboard.
Rank
#58
Sirtio score
79.1
Avg edge (per position)
+18%
Positions (30d)
179
Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 179 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 89% of purplegatto's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.
See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.
Raw avg return
+18%
across 179 positions
Z-score
+4.16
distance from average, adjusted for confidence
Sirtio score
79.1
The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.
The best single trade in this window was +$8,929 on "US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?" (a 49% return). The worst was a -$1,742 loss on "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?".
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Yes
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Yes
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
Yes
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
Yes
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Yes
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Yes
Spread: Jacksonville State (-3.5)
Jacksonville State
Spread: Jacksonville State (-3.5)
Jacksonville State
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Yes
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Yes
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Yes
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Yes
Orlando City SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5
Under
Orlando City SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5
Under
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Yes
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Yes
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
Yes
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
Yes
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs
Orlando City SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5
Orlando City SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5
Spread: Jacksonville State (-3.5)
Spread: Jacksonville State (-3.5)
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 0.5
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. SS Lazio: O/U 0.5
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Papertrade FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Papertrade FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Trump meets with Putin by November 30?
Trump meets with Putin by November 30?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?
Ireland Tour of Namibia ODIs: Namibia vs Ireland
Ireland Tour of Namibia ODIs: Namibia vs Ireland
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Oregon governor race in 2026?
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?
Pistons vs. Knicks
Pistons vs. Knicks
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?
Will the Republican Party win the NY-17 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the NY-17 House seat?
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?
Warriors vs. Timberwolves
Warriors vs. Timberwolves
Will the Republican Party win the FL-27 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the FL-27 House seat?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?
NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026?
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the ME-02 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-05 House seat?
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
Will Los Angeles FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?
Will Los Angeles FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Will Hull City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
Will Hull City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?
Will the Nashville Predators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
Will the Nashville Predators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Will Eintracht Frankfurt be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?
Will Eintracht Frankfurt be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion?
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
Will the Republican Party win the PA-01 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the PA-01 House seat?
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Will the Detroit Red Wings be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
Will the Detroit Red Wings be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals?
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?
Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Will the Republican Party win the MI-07 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the MI-07 House seat?
Wizards vs. Bulls
Wizards vs. Bulls
Spurs vs. Mavericks
Spurs vs. Mavericks
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Milwaukee Brewers
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5
Maple Leafs vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the ME-02 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?
Chicago State vs. Lindenwood
Chicago State vs. Lindenwood
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-01 House seat?
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat?
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5
East Tennessee State vs. VMI
East Tennessee State vs. VMI
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Heat vs. Hornets
Heat vs. Hornets
Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score
Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?
Rockets vs. Spurs
Rockets vs. Spurs
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-07 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-07 House seat?
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-05 House seat?
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?
Knicks vs. Celtics
Knicks vs. Celtics
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-01 House seat?
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-01 House seat?
Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?
Bengals vs. Ravens
Bengals vs. Ravens
Bucks vs. 76ers
Bucks vs. 76ers
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 240.5
Bulls vs. Bucks: O/U 240.5
Raptors vs. Wizards
Raptors vs. Wizards
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Dota 2: 1win vs OG - Game 1 Winner
Dota 2: 1win vs OG - Game 1 Winner
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)
Warriors vs. Lakers
Warriors vs. Lakers
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026?
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
Nuggets vs. Thunder
Nuggets vs. Thunder
Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the OH-13 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the OH-13 House seat?
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?
Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?
Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
Will Anyone's Legend win Worlds 2026?
Will Anyone's Legend win Worlds 2026?
Timberwolves vs. Heat
Timberwolves vs. Heat
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?
Al Hazem SC vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club: O/U 2.5
Al Hazem SC vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club: O/U 2.5
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
Spread: Stars (-1.5)
South Dakota vs. Murray State
South Dakota vs. Murray State
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Will Georgia Bulldogs win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
Will Georgia Bulldogs win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 American League Championship Series?
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 American League Championship Series?
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series?
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by March 31, 2027?
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series?
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 American League Championship Series?
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series?