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123987456

View on Polymarket

Tier

Good

Over the last 30 days, 123987456 closed 76 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +20% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, 123987456 shows a real edge over the average tracked trader, though a more moderate one and currently sits at rank #68 on Sirtio's leaderboard.

Rank

#68

Sirtio score

74.8

Avg edge (per position)

+20%

Positions (30d)

76

Heads up: a win has to be redeemed to become real money, but a losing position that settled at $0 never has to be -- so the 76 closed positions this score is based on skew toward wins by construction, not necessarily by skill. An estimated 95% of 123987456's real money hasn't gone through that filter yet, so the Avg edge and Sirtio Score above could be flattering their true record until more of it resolves.

Sirtio Score Breakdown

See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.

Raw avg return

+20%

across 76 positions

→Shrunk toward the pool average, weighted by sample size

Z-score

+3.41

distance from average, adjusted for confidence

→Converted to a 0-100 scale

Sirtio score

74.8

The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.

The best single trade in this window was +$211 on "Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?" (a 15% return). The worst was a -$239 loss on "Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?".

Top 5 Wins (Last 30 Days)

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

No

+$21115%

Will Fulham FC win on 2026-10-24?

Yes

+$118144%

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 14?

No

+$91317%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

No

+$9082%

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

No

+$8323%

Top 5 Losses (Last 30 Days)

Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?

No

-$239-18%

Exact Score: V-Varen Nagasaki 3 - 5 Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Yes

-$17-100%

Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-10-19?

Yes

-$8-16%

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Yes

-$5-6%

Will CD Guadalajara vs. Club Necaxa end in a draw?

Yes

-$5-3%

All Positions (Since Tracked Oct 12, 2026)

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026RedeemedYes68c entry
+$647%

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 31?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026MergedNo96c entry
+$04%

Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026MergedNo95c entry
+$15%

Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 31?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026MergedNo56c entry
+$279%

Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026MergedNo75c entry
+$534%

Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?

Resolved Oct 31, 2026MergedNo65c entry
+$653%

Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedNo61c entry
+$463%

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedYes53c entry
+$321%

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on October 31?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedNo95c entry
+$05%

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on October 31?

Resolved Oct 30, 2026MergedNo62c entry
+$261%

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.75T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026MergedNo98c entry
+$02%

Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026MergedNo98c entry
+$12%

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on October 28?

Resolved Oct 29, 2026RedeemedNo92c entry
+$19%

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 28?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026RedeemedNo98c entry
+$02%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and Michigan, and lose Ohio and Texas?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedNo94c entry
+$16%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Maine, and lose Alaska, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedNo94c entry
+$16%

Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedNo75c entry
+$233%

Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Kansas and Michigan?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedNo95c entry
+$15%

Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedNo82c entry
+$222%

Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska and Michigan?

Resolved Oct 28, 2026MergedNo92c entry
+$19%

Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedNo25c entry
+$5300%

Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedNo97c entry
+$03%

Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedNo97c entry
+$03%

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedNo88c entry
+$114%

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedNo95c entry
+$05%

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedNo98c entry
+$02%

Will one person dissent the October Fed decision?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedYes45c entry
+$211%

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Maryland be between 2,000,000 and 2,150,000?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedYes52c entry
-$1-4%

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 27?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026MergedNo70c entry
+$243%

Exact Score: V-Varen Nagasaki 3 - 5 Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026Force-closedYes32c entry
-$17-100%

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?

Resolved Oct 27, 2026Force-closedNo2c entry
-$4-100%

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo98c entry
+$02%

Will Besiktas win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo96c entry
+$44%

Will the match end in a draw?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedYes54c entry
-$1-7%

Will Ben Johns win exactly one Triple Crown in the 2026-27 PPA Tour season?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedYes45c entry
+$411%

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C or higher on October 26?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedYes43c entry
+$117%

Will Olympiacos win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo97c entry
+$63%

Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-10-25?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedYes56c entry
-$4-11%

Will the Toronto Maple Leafs be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo97c entry
+$103%

Will Los Angeles FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy end in a draw?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedYes41c entry
+$222%

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on October 26?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo94c entry
+$76%

Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-10-25?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026RedeemedYes62c entry
+$12%

Will CF América win on 2026-10-25?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedYes64c entry
-$2-21%

Will the St. Louis Blues be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo99c entry
+$21%

Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo28c entry
+$14262%

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo82c entry
+$8323%

Will CA Barracas Central vs. AA Estudiantes end in a draw?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedYes53c entry
-$0-5%

Will CD Tolima win on 2026-10-25?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedYes44c entry
+$115%

Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo90c entry
+$3112%

Will Querétaro FC vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedYes50c entry
+$01%

Will the Memphis Grizzlies be the 2027 NBA Western Conference Champion?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo99c entry
+$01%

Will the Golden State Warriors be the 2027 NBA Western Conference Champion?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo99c entry
+$01%

Will the New York Rangers be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo98c entry
+$42%

Will Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo91c entry
+$110%

Will Sunderland win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo95c entry
+$05%

Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo97c entry
+$53%

Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo94c entry
+$46%

Will Ferencvaros win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo99c entry
+$21%

Will the Utah Mammoth be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo97c entry
+$83%

Will the Washington Capitals be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo96c entry
+$84%

Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo98c entry
+$42%

Will the Boston Bruins be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo98c entry
+$52%

Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo97c entry
+$63%

Will the Anaheim Ducks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo99c entry
+$31%

Will the San Jose Sharks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo98c entry
+$42%

Will the Los Angeles Kings be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo98c entry
+$42%

Will the Columbus Blue Jackets be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo99c entry
+$42%

Will the Winnipeg Jets be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo99c entry
+$31%

Will Kraken be first to list tokenized stocks in the US?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$01%

Will the New Jersey Devils be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo95c entry
+$15%

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on October 26?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo96c entry
+$04%

Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo96c entry
+$14%

Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-10-25?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedYes45c entry
+$012%

Will San Diego Wave FC vs. Boston Legacy FC end in a draw?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo68c entry
+$747%

Will AZ win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo99c entry
+$31%

Will Atlas FC vs. Club Puebla end in a draw?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedYes54c entry
-$0-7%

Will Celta Vigo win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo96c entry
+$84%

Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo95c entry
+$45%

Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-10-25?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedYes38c entry
+$330%

Will Boston Legacy FC win on 2026-10-25?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedYes48c entry
+$03%

Will Deportivo La Guaira win on 2026-10-25?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedYes41c entry
+$223%

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on October 27?

Resolved Oct 26, 2026MergedNo78c entry
+$128%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedNo99c entry
+$161%

Will San Diego Wave FC win on 2026-10-25?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes42c entry
+$120%

Will the Pittsburgh Penguins be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedNo98c entry
+$12%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedNo70c entry
-$1-0%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedNo75c entry
+$1533%

Will Club Puebla win on 2026-10-25?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes47c entry
+$07%

Will Sporting CP win on 2026-10-25?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes70c entry
-$2-28%

Will Sport Boys Association vs. FC Cajamarca end in a draw?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes46c entry
+$18%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedNo88c entry
+$1613%

Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes54c entry
-$1-7%

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes53c entry
-$5-6%

Will Club Alianza Lima win on 2026-10-25?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes50c entry
+$01%

Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedNo64c entry
+$2357%

Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 United States Grand Prix?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedNo47c entry
+$16113%

Will Le Havre AC win on 2026-10-25?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes53c entry
-$1-5%

Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes54c entry
-$2-8%

Will Levante UD win on 2026-10-25?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes50c entry
+$01%

Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-10-25?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes42c entry
+$219%

Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-10-25?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes55c entry
-$1-9%

Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-10-25?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes39c entry
+$1828%

Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-25?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes53c entry
-$1-5%

Exact Score: FC Barcelona 4 - 2 Real Madrid CF?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedNo96c entry
+$04%

Will the Swiss National Bank make no change to the SNB policy rate at the December meeting?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedYes44c entry
+$213%

Will Athletic Club vs. Getafe CF end in a draw?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedNo88c entry
+$114%

Will the Colorado Avalanche be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026MergedNo90c entry
+$2011%

Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?

Resolved Oct 25, 2026RedeemedNo83c entry
+$3420%

FC Zlín vs. SK Sigma Olomouc: Draw at halftime?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026RedeemedYes43c entry
+$3133%

Will Fulham FC win on 2026-10-24?

Resolved Oct 24, 2026RedeemedYes41c entry
+$118144%

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on October 22?

Resolved Oct 23, 2026RedeemedNo92c entry
+$29%

Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026SoldNo28c entry
+$3493%

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on October 20?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026RedeemedYes40c entry
+$3150%

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 21?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026MergedYes37c entry
+$135%

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$02%

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on October 21?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026MergedYes37c entry
+$135%

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on October 21?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026MergedNo65c entry
+$955%

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026MergedYes40c entry
+$426%

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 21?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026MergedYes36c entry
+$139%

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 21?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026MergedYes55c entry
-$1-9%

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 21?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026MergedYes33c entry
+$1752%

Will CD Guadalajara vs. Club Necaxa end in a draw?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026MergedYes52c entry
-$5-3%

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 22?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026MergedYes50c entry
-$0-1%

Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 19-October 25?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026MergedYes55c entry
-$1-9%

Will Fortaleza FC win on 2026-10-20?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026MergedYes47c entry
+$147%

Will Internacional de Bogotá win on 2026-10-20?

Resolved Oct 21, 2026MergedYes41c entry
+$861%

Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-10-19?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedYes59c entry
-$8-16%

Will Cúcuta Deportivo FC vs. Atlético Nacional end in a draw?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedYes49c entry
+$63%

Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedYes47c entry
+$26%

Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedNo83c entry
+$3420%

Will Anyone's Legend win Worlds 2026?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedNo94c entry
+$116%

Will Tadley Calleva FC win on 2026-10-20?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026RedeemedNo100c entry
+$00%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedNo100c entry
+$10%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedNo55c entry
+$9082%

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedNo100c entry
+$20%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedNo88c entry
+$3514%

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on October 21?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedNo64c entry
+$1755%

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 21?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedYes43c entry
+$116%

Will Ben Johns win zero Triple Crowns in the 2026-27 PPA Tour season?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedYes51c entry
-$2-1%

Will Ben Johns win three or more Triple Crowns in the 2026-27 PPA Tour season?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedYes48c entry
+$15%

Will Borussia Dortmund finish as runner-up in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedNo98c entry
+$02%

Will Manchester City finish as runner-up in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedNo88c entry
+$114%

Will Atlético Madrid finish as runner-up in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedNo85c entry
+$218%

Will Paris Saint-Germain finish as runner-up in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedNo87c entry
+$115%

Will Barcelona finish as runner-up in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedNo84c entry
+$219%

Will Arsenal finish as runner-up in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedNo79c entry
+$227%

Will Galatasaray finish as runner-up in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedNo100c entry
+$00%

Will Bayern Munich finish as runner-up in the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedNo89c entry
+$112%

Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on October 21?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026SoldNo100c entry
-$0-0%

Will Inter Milan score the most goals in the UCL league phase?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedNo100c entry
+$00%

Will Manchester City score the most goals in the UCL league phase?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedNo100c entry
+$00%

Will Bayern Munich score the most goals in the UCL league phase?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedNo79c entry
+$427%

Will Real Betis score the most goals in the UCL league phase?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedNo100c entry
+$00%

Will RB Leipzig score the most goals in the UCL league phase?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedNo100c entry
+$00%

Will Napoli score the most goals in the UCL league phase?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedNo100c entry
+$00%

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 26?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedYes55c entry
-$1-9%

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026MergedYes50c entry
-$0-0%

Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026SoldNo59c entry
+$3615%

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026SoldNo43c entry
+$21115%

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on October 19?

Resolved Oct 20, 2026RedeemedYes34c entry
+$2194%

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on October 19?

Resolved Oct 19, 2026RedeemedYes53c entry
+$189%

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on October 20?

Resolved Oct 19, 2026MergedYes52c entry
-$0-3%

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on October 19?

Resolved Oct 19, 2026MergedYes54c entry
-$0-7%

Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?

Resolved Oct 19, 2026SoldNo73c entry
-$239-18%

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on October 18?

Resolved Oct 19, 2026RedeemedYes45c entry
+$11122%

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on October 19?

Resolved Oct 19, 2026MergedYes41c entry
+$222%

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 18?

Resolved Oct 18, 2026RedeemedNo77c entry
+$2330%

Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?

Resolved Oct 18, 2026MergedYes44c entry
+$315%

Kraken vs. Panthers: O/U 7.5

Resolved Oct 18, 2026Force-closedOver47c entry
+$3113%

Will lukxo win the VALORANT Champions 2026 MVP?

Resolved Oct 18, 2026RedeemedNo54c entry
+$985%

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on October 18?

Resolved Oct 18, 2026MergedYes47c entry
+$08%

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Resolved Oct 17, 2026SoldNo95c entry
+$70%

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 15?

Resolved Oct 15, 2026RedeemedNo38c entry
+$65163%

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 14?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026RedeemedNo64c entry
+$156%

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on October 13?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026RedeemedNo42c entry
+$60138%

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on October 14?

Resolved Oct 14, 2026MergedNo53c entry
+$4789%

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on October 13?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026MergedNo53c entry
+$1989%

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on October 13?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026MergedNo80c entry
+$1425%

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 14?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026MergedNo24c entry
+$91317%

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026MergedNo43c entry
+$11134%

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?

Resolved Oct 13, 2026MergedNo98c entry
+$02%

Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026MergedNo98c entry
+$02%

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026MergedNo98c entry
+$02%

Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026MergedNo35c entry
+$2189%

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026MergedNo93c entry
+$17%

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026MergedNo77c entry
+$030%

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026MergedNo87c entry
+$1215%

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026MergedNo96c entry
+$15%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026MergedNo98c entry
+$182%

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026MergedNo100c entry
+$50%

Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026MergedNo99c entry
+$21%

Will AI solve 5 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026MergedNo99c entry
+$11%

Will AI solve 4 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?

Resolved Oct 12, 2026MergedNo99c entry
+$11%