Tier
Good
Over the last 90 days, 11122 closed 25 resolved positions on Polymarket at an average return of +55% per position. Based on Sirtio's skill model, 11122 shows a real edge over the average tracked trader, though a more moderate one and currently sits at rank #36 on Sirtio's leaderboard.
Rank
#36
Sirtio score
66.0
Avg edge (per position)
+55%
Positions (90d)
25
See the full methodology for how each piece is calculated.
Raw avg return
+55%
across 25 positions
Z-score
+2.24
distance from average, adjusted for confidence
Sirtio score
66.0
The exact weighting is part of the model we keep private (see methodology), but every number above is this trader's real, calculated value at that step.
The best single trade in this window was +$5,493 on "Will John Cornyn vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?" (a 78455% return). The worst was a -$586 loss on "Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?".
Will John Cornyn vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?
No
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Yes
Will Darline Graham vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?
No
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?
No
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
Yes
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Yes
Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Yes
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
Yes
Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?
Yes
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?
Yes
Will Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?
Resolved Aug 19, 2026
Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?
Resolved Aug 19, 2026
Will Steve Friess be the WY-AL Republican nominee?
Resolved Aug 19, 2026
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Resolved Aug 19, 2026
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Resolved Aug 19, 2026
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
Resolved Aug 18, 2026
Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Resolved Aug 17, 2026
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
Resolved Aug 17, 2026
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Resolved Aug 16, 2026
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Resolved Aug 16, 2026
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Resolved Aug 16, 2026
Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Resolved Aug 14, 2026
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Resolved Aug 13, 2026
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
Resolved Aug 13, 2026
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
Resolved Aug 12, 2026
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
Resolved Aug 12, 2026
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Resolved Aug 12, 2026
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Will Darline Graham vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Will Rand Paul vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Will John Cornyn vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series?
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Resolved Aug 10, 2026
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Resolved Aug 7, 2026
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by less than 5%?
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Resolved Aug 4, 2026